| Bombing the European Axis Powers. A Historical Digest of the Combined Bomber Offensive 1939-1945 |
APR 2006 |
639 pages |
| Authors:
Richard B. Davis; AIR UNIV PRESS MAXWELL AFB AL
|
 | The theory of strategic air bombardment states that airpower is best used offensively to penetrate an enemy's home territory and disrupt or destroy the economy and means of war production to force the enemy to surrender. Strategic bombing will succeed either because it has fatally compromised the ability to carry on hostilities or because bombing has broken the will of the people and/or leadership to continue the fight. In World ... |
|
| Development of Experimental Army Enlisted Personnel Selection and Classification Tests and Job Performance Criteria |
AUG 2005 |
371 pages |
| Authors:
Deirdre J. Knapp; Christopher E. Sager; Trueman R. Tremble; HUMAN RESOURCES RESEARCH ORGANIZATION ALEXANDRIA VA
|
| U.S. Army leadership recognizes first and foremost the importance of its people - Soldiers - to the effectiveness of transformation to the Future Force. Preparing for this future will affect all aspects of the Soldier management system - selection, job classification, training, and leader development. This research effort is concerned with Soldier accession and job classification and is titled New Predictors for Selecting and Assigning Future Force Soldiers (Select2l). The ... |
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| Select21 Soldier Job Performance Measurement Tools |
AUG 2005 |
20 pages |
| Authors:
HUMAN RESOURCES RESEARCH ORGANIZATION ALEXANDRIA VA
|
| Transformation of the U.S. Army into the Future Force involves changes to missions, systems, and organizational structures. To realize the full potential of transformation, the Army must have the means to select and assign high-quality individuals who, as first-term Soldiers, can meet the training and operational demands emerging with transformation to the Future Force. This report is part of a series of research Product Reports that provide potential users with ... |
|
| Transatlantic Relations after Iraq |
18 MAR 2005 |
31 pages |
| Authors:
Dean Stodter; ARMY WAR COLL CARLISLE BARRACKS PA
|
| For a short time after the tragic events of 11 September 2001, the United States and its allies in Europe experienced a period of solidarity and oneness unlike any other time since the Second World War. However, it was as powerful as it was short-lived. In 2002, as individual nations and international institutions grappled with the nature of the terrorist threat and how to deal with it, a serious rift ... |
|
| Toxic Leadership in the U.S. Army |
10 JAN 2005 |
28 pages |
| Authors:
Denise F. Williams; ARMY WAR COLL CARLISLE BARRACKS PA
|
| The extent to which toxic leadership exists in the U.S. Army is a question that demands a thorough examination. While most publications on military leadership focus on the positive aspects of good leadership, this project examines the current literature on destructive leadership styles. The paper sought a definition of toxic leadership, consolidated expert views on the personal characteristics of toxic leaders, and compiled a taxonomy of 18 types of toxic ... |
|
| Legal Overview of P.L. 107-174, the Notification and Federal Employee Antidiscrimination and Retaliation Act of 2002 |
25 MAR 2004 |
6 pages |
| Authors:
|
| In the Notification and Federal Employee Antidiscrimination and Retaliation Act, (No FEAR Act), P.L. 107-174, Congress found that federal agencies lacked accountability for enforcement of federal anti-discrimination and whistleblower statutes since any monetary judgment against an agency was paid from the Judgment Fund of the U.S. Department of Justice, rather than the agency's own operating budget. The Act addresses the problem by requiring agencies to reimburse the Treasury for any ... |
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| Intervention With Difficult Members in Small Group Diversity Training |
20 MAY 2003 |
18 pages |
| Authors:
Judith L. Johnson; DEFENSE EQUAL OPPORTUNITY MANAGEMENT INST PATRICK AFB FL
|
| A general overview of a philosophy of intervention with difficult group members is provided. Common difficult small group member behaviors are then described including resistance, direct and indirect hostility, lack of participation, and minimization/denial. Possible interventions and examples specific to DEOMI are provided. |
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| Repletion of Zinc and Iron Deficiencies Improve Cognition of Premenopausal Women |
DEC 2001 |
63 pages |
| Authors:
Harold H. Sandstead; TEXAS UNIV MEDICAL BRANCH AT GALVESTON
|
| Zinc and iron deficiencies are common among young women who seldom consume red meat. It seemed likely that iron stores (measured by serum ferritin concentration) were related to zinc nutriture (measured by metabolically active zinc pools), and that food frequency would reflect these relationships. Zinc and iron are essential for brain function. It therefore, seemed likely that the low zinc and iron nutriture would adversely affect neuropsychological performance. To test ... |
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| Natural Ethical Facts: Evolution, Connectionism, and Moral Cognition |
2001 |
284 pages |
| Authors:
William D. Casebeer; ARIZONA UNIV TUCSON
|
| Naturalizing ethics has been a problematic philosophic enterprise. The author attempts a synoptic reconciliation of the sciences with a naturalized conception of morality, beginning with a Quinean refutation of the "naturalistic fallacy" and the "open question argument." We can improve our understanding of the nature of moral theory and its place in moral judgment by treating morality as a natural phenomenon subject to constraints from and ultimately reduced to the ... |
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| An Aircraft Preference Study on the Application of Vector Maps in U.S. Navy Tactical Aircraft |
2000 |
6 pages |
| Authors:
Michael E. Trenchard; Maura C. Lohrenz; Stephanie S. Edwards; NAVAL RESEARCH LAB STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS MAPPING CHARTING AND GEODESY BRANCH
|
| Cockpit digital map displays have long been considered a good situational awareness (SA) tool for the pilot. However, due to limited computational capabilities in tactical aircraft, most cockpit map displays have been limited to the display of digitized paper charts and imagery. One significant problem encountered by tactical aircraft pilots is map display clutter. Important mission planning and real-time overlays are often rendered over the map display during flight. The ... |
|
| Combat Search and Rescue Air Force Doctrine Document 2-1.6 |
30 SEP 1998 |
48 pages |
| Authors:
DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE WASHINGTON DC
|
| Air Force Doctrine Document (AFDD) 2-1.6 provides Air Force doctrine for combat search and rescue (CSAR) operations and supports basic aerospace power doctrine. It replaces AFDD 34 dated 30 December 1994. This AFDD applies to all active duty, Air Force Reserve, Air National Guard, and civilian Air Force personnel. This doctrine is authoritative but not directive. Commanders are encouraged to exercise judgment in applying this doctrine to accomplish their missions. ... |
|
| The Role of Data and Feedback Error in Inference and Prediction |
JUN 1998 |
215 pages |
| Authors:
Michael Doherty; Ryan Tweney; Lowell Schipper; Raymond O'Connor; BOWLING GREEN STATE UNIV OH
|
| The present research investigates two forms of uncertainty, defined operationally as error in the data, at two places within the information flow between the person and the environment. The two kinds were measurement error and system failure error. The former involved adding a random variable to the data. The latter involved the sort of error which occurs when an environmental source of data gives information unrelated to the causal or ... |
|
| Vergelijkend onderzoek ter ondersteuning van de selectie van de nieuwe gevechtsbril (A Comparative Study for the Selection of the New Dutch Military Spectacle) |
12 DEC 96 |
|
| Authors:
F. L. Kooi; HUMAN FACTORS RESEARCH INST TNO SOESTERBERG (NETHERLANDS)
|
 | The Royal Dutch Army and Air Force are in the process of replacing the military spectacles. Five candidate frames have been tested and compared on durability and fashion. The shortcomings of each frame type are described and an overall judgment is given. |
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| Nuclear Myths and Social Discourse: The U.S. Decision to Pursue Nuclear Weapons |
DEC 96 |
|
| Authors:
David L. Williams; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| Why do countries want nuclear weapons? This question has plagued non- proliferation and U.S. intelligence experts since the beginning of the nuclear era. Motivations for nuclear weapons typically are viewed as the product of external variables (perceived insecurity, prestige, etc.). This thesis asserts that a different level of analysis is appropriate. It is a society's beliefs about nuclear technology that at least partially explains nuclear proliferation. The 1939 U.S. decision ... |
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| Incidence and Psychophysiology of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder in Breast Cancer Victims and Witnesses |
OCT 1996 |
|
| Authors:
Roger K. Pitman; HARVARD COLL CAMBRIDGE MA
|
| The objectives are (a) to evaluate the incidence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in breast cancer patients and 'witnesses' (i.e., significant others), and (b) to validate - interview-based diagnosis by measuring physiologic responses during script-driven imagery of patients' and witnesses' personal experiences with breast cancer. To date, 35 patients and 26 witnesses have been studied. Telephone interview data have been obtained on an additional 24 patients and 21 witnesses. Results ... |
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| An Interactive Test of Mariner Competence |
SEP 96 |
65 pages |
| Authors:
M. W. Smith; G. R. Sandberg; M. C. McCallum; R. D. Stewart; D. A. Hard; COAST GUARD RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER GROTON CT
|
| This exploratory study demonstrated the feasibility of interactive testing of mariner competence in the knowledge and application of the Rules of the Road. A desk-top simulator system provides an interactive test that is potentially more accessible and affordable than use of a full-mission simulator. The study also demonstrated the feasibility of automatic scoring of an interactive test. Computerized automatic scoring eliminates the need for an expert examiner and provides objective, ... |
|
| OJT: A Cognitive Model and Prototype Training Program for OJT |
AUG 96 |
130 pages |
| Authors:
Caroline Zsambok; George L. Kaempf; Beth Crandal; Molly Kyne; KLEIN ASSOCIATES INC FAIRBORN OH
|
| Common among Army personnel is their concern about the quality and consistency of OJT delivery. There are thousands of OJT providers in today's Army, but they receive little guidance about training others. This is a lost opportunity that costs money. OJT providers are already in place, as are trainees. Yet, training is often inefficient, resulting in lengthened learning time. In the private sector, OJT is also a highly leverageable resource. ... |
|
| War Termination: The Application of Operational Art to Negotiating Peace |
14 JUN 96 |
23 pages |
| Authors:
John Schwanz; NAVAL WAR COLL NEWPORT RI
|
| Trends in modern warfare make it imperative for operational design to be adaptive. Most modern wars will be limited wars fought for limited objectives. War termination strategy will shift during the course of the war from military victory to negotiated settlement. This strategic shift warrants a change in operational objectives from those intended to secure military victory to ones intended to influence negotiations by managing the costs of war in ... |
|
| A Leadership Development Program Geared Toward Male and Female College Freshmen |
23 OCT 95 |
101 pages |
| Authors:
David C. Scofield; ARMY STUDENT DETACHMENT FORT JACKSON SC
|
| Leadership development may be considered a major goal of higher education that contributes to the development of students' social and life skills (Chambers, 1992). The existing literature on student development suggests that leadership programming has made a positive impact on both male and female college students (Chambers, 1992; Cooper, Healy & Simpson, 1994). Leadership programming has been related to increased persistence (Astin, 1985), satisfaction, retention and graduation (Kuh, Schuh & ... |
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| Individual Differences in the Generation and Processing of Performance Feedback |
SEP 95 |
39 pages |
| Authors:
David M. Herold; Charles K. Parsons; Roger B. Rensvold; GEORGIA INST OF TECH ATLANTA
|
| In this paper, we identify domain-specific measures of individual differences in feedback propensities. In a series of studies, we identify the primary dimensions, psychometric characteristics, and construct validation evidence for internal ability, internal propensity, and external propensity for feedback. Confirmatory factor analysis supports the three-dimensional representation. Correlations between the new scales and existing differences of personality are consistent with theoretical predictions. Research that has used the new scales to predict ... |
|
| Learning Automated Product Recommendations Without Observable Features: An Initial Investigation |
APR 95 |
|
| Authors:
Mary S. Lee; Andrew W. Moore; CARNEGIE-MELLON UNIV PITTSBURGH PA ROBOTICS INST
|
| It is appealing to imagine software packages that provide personally tailored product recommendations to a consumer. One way to predict the rating of a particular product by a particular consumer is through inference from a database of previous ratings by many consumers of many products. Such a database consists of triplets of the forms: (product-identifier, consumer-identifier, rating). Generally such databases will be sparse, but nevertheless we may hope to derive ... |
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| The Human-Electronic Crew: Can We Trust the Team? Proceedings of the 3rdInternational Workshop on Human-Computer Teamwork |
JAN 1995 |
127 pages |
| Authors:
Robert M. Taylor; John Reising; ROYAL AIR FORCE FARNBOROUGH (UNITED KINGDOM) INST OF AVIATION MEDICINE
|
| With the emergence of increasing numbers of aircraft systems involving human operators interacting with "intelligent" automation, concerns have been raised regarding the trustworthiness of the Human-Electronic Crew Team's decisions. Many of the decisions that the Team is required to make occur in an imprecise world in which the judgements may be made based on such vague concepts as high, low, near or far. The most ... |
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| The Effects of Stress on Judgement and Decision Making: An Overview and Arguments for a New Approach |
JAN 95 |
82 pages |
| Authors:
Kenneth R. Hammond; COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
|
| This monograph consists of an overview of four principal literatures on the effects of stress on human performance, with specific reference to studies of the effects of stress on human judgement and decision making. The four literatures are: Clinical/social/personality (Literature I), ergonomics/ human factors (Literature II), psychohysiology (Literature III), and judgement and decision making (Literature IV). |
|
| Expert Opinion in Reliability |
NOV 93 |
18 pages |
| Authors:
S. Campodonico; N. D. Singpurwalla; GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIV WASHINGTON DC INST FOR RELIABILITY AND RISK ANALYSIS
|
| In this report we present some results on the formal treatment of expert opinion in reliability analysis. We discuss a procedure which uses opinion of one or two experts for undertaking the reliability assessment of a component. Then we develop the methodology for point processes broadly used in the analysis of defect and count data. (AN) |
|
| Decision Under Conflict: Resolution and Confidence in Judgment and Choice |
05 AUG 92 |
14 pages |
| Authors:
Amos Tversky; STANFORD UNIV CA DEPT OF PSYCHOLOGY
|
| The major themes of the research supported under this grant are the discrepancy between normative and descriptive theory and the constructive nature of decision and judgement. In contrast to the classical theory that treats preferences as given and describes choice as a maximization process, the present approach holds that preferences and judgements are often constructed in the elicitation process. Furthermore, these constructions are contingent on the framing of the problem, ... |
|
| Examining the Effect of Information Order on Expert Judgment |
JUN 91 |
27 pages |
| Authors:
Leonard Adelman; Martin A. Tolcott; Terry A. Bresnick; DECISION SCIENCE CONSORTIUM INC RESTON VA
|
| Research indicates that humans use heuristics to make inferences and that, depending on task characteristics, these heuristics can lead to inconsistencies and errors in judgment-that is, cognitive biases. Most of this research has been performed with university students performing tasks, requiring logical thinking but not expertise in a particular substantive area. Our concern is in determining whether heuristics can lead to cognitive biases among experienced personnel performing their substantive task. ... |
|
| Aircrew Fatigue Countermeasures, |
DEC 1990 |
|
| Authors:
Stephens F. McCauley; MILITARY AIRLIFT COMMAND SCOTT AFB IL
|
| Since the earliest days of aviation, there have been aircraft accidents (now referred to as flight mishaps ). In earlier times, mechanical malfunctions were blamed for the greater number of mishaps. Engineering and technological advances, however, have since lowered the likelihood of machine-induced mishaps. Now, the man part of the equation (in a chain of events leading to a mishap) is far more likely to be the primary cause. (17:1) ... |
|
| Selected Judgmental Methods in Defense Analyses. Volume 1. Main Text |
JUL 90 |
|
| Authors:
Jeffrey H. Grotte; Lowell B. Anderson; Mitchell S. Robinson; INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA
|
| This paper examines selected methodologies for collecting and using judgment data. Such methodologies may have applications in the consideration of qualitative aspects of military effectiveness, such as morale and leadership, as well as in the estimation of values for which good empirical bases do not exist. This paper examines several established approaches to using judgment to provide numerical values and ordinal rankings. Underlying principles, ease of implementation, and criticism of ... |
|
| Meanings of Nonnumerical Probability Phrases |
JUL 90 |
|
| Authors:
Thomas S. Wallsten; NORTH CAROLINA UNIV AT CHAPEL HILL PSYCHOMETRIC LAB
|
| This report summarizes three years of research on the meanings of nonnumerical probability phrases. The work is relevant to military needs because often the uncertainty of decisions is not well represented by the probability theory, but rather is imprecise, vague, or based on linguistic input. Techniques were developed and validated for representing the vague meanings of linguistic probabilities in individuals in specific contexts as membership functions over the (0,1) interval. ... |
|
| Creating Algorithms as an Aid to Judgment |
JUN 90 |
|
| Authors:
Sara Lichtenstein; Donald MacGregor; Paul Slovic; PERCEPTRONICS INC WOODLAND HILLS CA
|
| The strategy for aiding judgment presented in this report is algorithmic decomposition. To use this approach, a complicated or unknown quantity is decomposed into a number of subproblems that are more manageable or can be estimated more readily. Answers to the component parts of the problem are then combined according to a set of rules (an algorithm) to yield an answer to the original problem. In this experiment we gave ... |
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| Performance Measurement Development for Air Combat |
OCT 89 |
|
| Authors:
Gary S. Thomas; David C. Miller; DAYTON UNIV OH RESEARCH INST
|
| The purpose of this research was to formulate a unitary measure of performance for simulated one-versus-one, within visual range, air-to-air combat. The measure will serve as a criterion for the development and validation of specific measures of Air Combat Maneuvering (ACM) skill that can be used to provide diagnostic performance feedback to pilots. Three experiments were conducted in which fighter pilots served as judges and rank-ordered, from most to least ... |
|
| Preliminary Report on Classification of Transient Sonar Signals |
23 JUN 89 |
18 pages |
| Authors:
Thomas E. Hanna; NAVAL SUBMARINE MEDICAL RESEARCH LAB GROTON CT
|
| We extracted fifty, one-second segments from extended recordings of underwater acoustic events. Using transcripts of the recording sessions and the judgments of two sonar operators, each of these fifty signals was put into one of eight categories. We then measured two listeners'; abilities to categorize these fifty signals presented individually. Feedback was given for three exemplars from each of the eight categories. The other twenty-six signals were used as probe ... |
|
| A Review of Models and Procedures for Synthetic Validation for Entry- Level Army Jobs |
DEC 88 |
|
| Authors:
Jennifer L. Crafts; Philip L. Szenas; Wei J. Chia; Elaine D. Pulakos; AMERICAN INSTITUTES FOR RESEARCH WASHINGTON DC
|
| This review presents relevant literature in the areas of synthetic validation, job component models, and expert judgments. Synthetic validation is a logical process for inferring test battery validity from elemental test validities for job components. The review describes a number of key linkages required for synthetic validation, presents a model of the steps to establish linkages, reviews and evaluates synthetic validation studies in terms of how completely linkages were established ... |
|
| Motor Responses to Objects: Priming and Hand Shaping |
20 SEP 88 |
|
| Authors:
Roberta A. Klatzky; James W. Pelligrino; CALIFORNIA UNIV SANTA BARBARA
|
| This research deals with motor responses to common objects and with the cognitive representations of such responses. A priming would facilitate judgements about the sensibility of actions performed with objects. Primes pertained to (a) the size of the functional hand shape and/or (b) whether the hand acted as a prehensile or nonprehensile instrument. Priming was found to be effective when both these features were specified and training on the prime ... |
|
| Judgement and Decision Making in Dynamic Tasks |
AUG 88 |
|
| Authors:
Kenneth R. Hammond; COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
|
| This research note presents a theory of task conditions on the grounds that such a theory is a prerequisite for studying dynamic decision making. The principal features of the theory are: a) a task-cognition inducement principle, b) a distinction drawn between surface and depth characteristics of tasks, and c) a task continuum index. Also presented is a theory of cognition in dynamic tasks, the main features of which are a ... |
|
| Aeronautical Decision Making for Air Ambulance Helicopter Pilots: Learning from Past Mistakes |
JUL 88 |
|
| Authors:
R. J. Adams; J. L. Thompson; SYSTEMS CONTROL TECHNOLOGY INC ARLINGTON VA
|
| The following materials are based upon actual helicopter air ambulance accidents. They focus on the importance of decision making and judgement during all phases of flight. Improving safety is a shared responsibility between hospital administrators, vendors, chief pilots, head nurses, pilots, air medics, dispatchers and physicians. It is to everyones advantage to establish and support an operational frame of reference that will ensure safety. These accident synopses are the first ... |
|
| Proceedings of a Workshop on the Development and Evaluation of Habitat Suitability Criteria |
FEB 88 |
422 pages |
| Authors:
Ken Bovee; James R. Zuboy; NATIONAL ECOLOGY RESEARCH CENTER FORT COLLINS CO
|
| Reliable habitat suitability criteria are critical to the successful implementation of the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM), or any other habitat-based evaluation technology. Habitat suitability criteria are the characteristic behavioral traits of a species (relative to the selection of optimal habitat) that are established as standards for comparison in the decisionmaking process. This proceedings is a compilation of 22 papers presented at a workshop in December 1986. The objective of ... |
|
| Rules, Schema, and Decision Making |
SEP 87 |
|
| Authors:
David Noble; Carla Grosz; Deborah Boehm-Davis; ENGINEERING RESEARCH ASSOCIATES INC VIENNA VA
|
| The development and use of schemata in decision making is examined. Subjects are trained to evaluate alternatives by calculating expected outcomes. In subsequent tests, subjects are required to select the best alternative without being given enough time to compute outcomes. Under these conditions subjects adopted a hybrid decision strategy employing both schemata and approximations to outcome calculation. The schemata were organized around a prototype. They specify a judgement associated with ... |
|
| Organizational Productivity Measurement: The Development and Evaluation of an Integrated Approach |
JUL 87 |
|
| Authors:
Robert D. Pritchard; Steven D. Jones; Philip L. Roth; Karla K. Stuebing; Steven E. Ekeberg; HOUSTON UNIV TX DEPT OF PSYCHOLOGY
|
| This technical paper describes the results of a field evaluation of a new approach to the measurement of organizational productivity. This approach involves (a) identifying the objectives of the unit, (b) identifying measures or indicators of how well the unit is meeting these objectives, and (c) developing functional relationships between performance on the indicators and the contribution that those levels of the indicators make to overall effectiveness. The productivity measurement ... |
|
| Contingent Weighting in Judgment and Choice |
08 JUN 87 |
|
| Authors:
Amos Tversky; Shmuel Sattath; Paul Slovic; STANFORD UNIV CA
|
| Preference can be inferred from direct choice between options or from a matching procedure in which the decision maker adjusts one option to match another. Studies of perferences between two-dimensional options (e.g., public policies, job applicants, benefit plans) show that the more prominent dimension looms larger in choice than in matching. Thus, choice is more lexicographic than matching. This finding is viewed as an instance of a general principle of ... |
|
| The Development of Automatism of Social Judgments |
AUG 85 |
|
| Authors:
E. R. Smith; M. Lerner; PURDUE UNIV LAFAYETTE IN DEPT OF PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCES
|
| The distinction between automatic and nonautomatic processing has been prominent recently in social cognition, but little research to date has examined the development of automatism of social judgments and other social information processing tasks. This paper reports two studies exploring a number of aspects of the development of automatism, to determine the rate of its development and what theoretically expected correlates can be detected. Results show that automatism can develop ... |
|
| Victim and Witness Assistance |
20 AUG 84 |
|
| Authors:
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE GENERAL COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
|
| This Directive implements reference (a) Public Law No. 97-291, The Victim and Witness Protection Act of 1982 parallels reference (b) Department of Justice Guidelines for Victim and Witness Assistance, by prescribing procedures for the treatment of victims of offenses under reference (c) Title 10, United States Code, Section 801-940, Uniform Code of Military Justice (UCMJ) and assigns responsibilities. |
|
| Information Search in Judgment Tasks: The Effects of Unequal Cue Validity and Cost |
MAY 1984 |
|
| Authors:
T. Connolly; P. Serre; ARIZONA UNIV TUCSON COLL OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
|
| The broad question addressed by this research is: How good are humans at balancing the costs and benefits of their information acquisition? Do they buy those, and only those, sources of information whose acquisition cost is outweighed by the improvement in decision quality that their use makes possible? The evidence reported here, together with that reviewed earlier, suggests that the answer is not encouraging. Specifically, the present findings extend those ... |
|
| Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Probabilistic Inference |
SEP 1983 |
|
| Authors:
Hillel J. Einhorn; Robin M. Hogarth; CHICAGO UNIV IL CENTER FOR DECISION RESEARCH
|
| Ambiguity results from having limited knowledge of the process that generates outcomes. It is argued that many real-world processes are perceived to be ambiguous; moreover, as Ellsberg demonstrated, this poses problems for theories of probability operationalized via choices amongst gambles. A descriptive model of how people make judgments under ambiguity in tasks where data come from a source of limited, but not exactly known reliability, is proposed. The model assumes ... |
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| Development of Values and Moral Judgments of West Point Cadets |
AUG 1983 |
|
| Authors:
R. F. Priest; C. F. Bridges; MILITARY ACADEMY WEST POINT NY OFFICE OF INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH
|
| This report describes the development of personal, social, and moral values, as well as the development of moral judgments in cadets in the Class of 1981. It is the final report of a comprehensive, longitudinal values assessment project initiated in 1977. Cadets were followed over four years, during which time they completed the Rokeach values test, several measures of the relative importance of selected values, and the Scott values test ... |
|
| On Peace and War: A Study of Morality and U.S. Strategic Nuclear Policies |
MAY 1983 |
|
| Authors:
Don B. Ginder; Irvin Hicks; ARMY WAR COLL CARLISLE BARRACKS PA
|
| The paper examines the quesitons of peace and war and the morality of nuclear deterrence. These vital and enduring questions have been again become a focus of societal debate, especially in the light of the Catholic Bishop's pastoral letter. The nuclear debate is all encompassing, raising philosophical, political, social, strategic an religious questions. These issues present problems that each informed citizen will have to discern both morally and politically. The ... |
|
| Psychological Measurements During the Wear of the US Aircrew Chemical Defense Ensemble |
FEB 1983 |
54 pages |
| Authors:
Bruce E. Hamilton; Liliana Zapata; ARMY AEROMEDICAL RESEARCH LAB FORT RUCKER AL
|
| The psychological (as opposed to physiological) effects of wearing a US aircrew chemical defense ensemble were evaluated using 12 male and 12 female volunteers. Half of the males and half of the females wore chemical defense ensembles while the rest wore standard US flight suits as controls. All subjects were administered tests of cognition (math, logical reasoning, target detection, and reaction time) before and after 6 hours of wear in ... |
|
| Toward a Procedural Theory of Judgment |
DEC 1982 |
|
| Authors:
Lola L. Lopes; WISCONSIN HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING PROGRAM MADISON
|
| A procedural theory of judgment is described in which judgment is viewed as a serial 'anchoring and adjustment' process. The process is described as comprising scanning, anchoring, and adjusting operations, the latter of which is applied iteratively (with order of adjustment steps usually determined by relative importance) until the judge deems that sufficient information has been integrated and outputs a final response. The paper has three major sections. First, the ... |
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| Nonadditivity in Inference Judgments |
NOV 1982 |
|
| Authors:
Lola L. Lopes; WISCONSIN HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING PROGRAM MADISON
|
| It has been known for some time that subjects in Bayesian tasks produce data that look more like averages than like inferences. Shanteau suggested that the proper descriptive rule for the data is a weighted average. Wallsten, however, pointed out that a constant weighted averaging rule such as Shanteau used is formally equivalent to the Bayesian rule in that both are qualitatively additive. In principle, however, averaging can be differentially ... |
|
| Procedural Debiasing |
OCT 1982 |
|
| Authors:
Lola L. Lopes; WISCONSIN HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING PROGRAM MADISON
|
| As knowledge increases about human judgement processes, it is natural to suppose that it will be possible to use this knowledge in order to improve human judgment in situations where biases of various sorts have been shown to occur. Despite the reasonableness of this expectation, judgmental debiasing has proven extraordinarily difficult in most cases. This paper suggests that the reason for this failure is that debiasing must be in terms ... |
|
Reports by Keyword(s)
JUDGEMENT(PSYCHOLOGY)
