| Application of Game Theory to Improve the Defense of the Smart Grid |
Mar 2012 |
146 pages |
| Authors:
Keith J Ross; AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH GRADUATE SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT
|
 | This thesis presents the development and evaluation of a distributed agent based system using reputation based trust and game theoretic techniques to improve the defense of the future smart grid from cyber-attack and equipment malfunctions. Future smart grid capabilities promise to leverage network technologies to revolutionize the production, transmission, distribution and consumption of electrical power. However, the internet like communication also increase the power grid's vulnerability to cyber-attack. This thesis ... |
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| A Game Theoretic Model Of Strategic Conflict In Cyberspace |
Jan 2012 |
46 pages |
| Authors:
Harrison Schramm; David L Alderson; W M Carlyle; Nedialko B Dimitrov; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| We study cyber conflict as a two-person, zero-sum game in discrete time, where each player discovers new exploits according to an independent random process. Upon discovery, the player must decide if and when to exercise a munition based on that exploit. The payoff from using the munition is a function of time that is (generally) increasing. These factors create a basic tension: the longer a player waits to exercise a ... |
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| Game Theory, Probabilistic Risk, and Randomized Strategy: The Rulebook Revisited with Emphasis on Coast Guard Mission Space |
Dec 2011 |
91 pages |
| Authors:
Ryan S Engel; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| The welfare of the United States is highly dependent upon its critical infrastructures and key resources. The Marine Transportation System is critical to the flow of commerce. The United States Coast Guard is charged with facilitating the protection of the Marine Transportation System from acts of terrorism under the Port, Waterways, and Coastal Security Mission. The Coast Guard faces the challenge of providing essential protection strategies with limited resources. Optimizing ... |
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| Learning Management Platform for CyberCIEGE |
Dec 2011 |
61 pages |
| Authors:
Lim W Chean; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| In order to enhance the usability of the CyberCIEGE to assess the student's learning experience and achievement of the scenario objectives. This thesis investigated how to improve the current student assessment module, report generation process, report format and also integrating of CyberCIEGE with Naval Postgraduate School's (NPS) Learning Management System (LMS). Based on the researched, enhancements such as additional summary view on Event Log Analyzer with game selection features, report ... |
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| The Pak-U.S. Alliance in the Fight Against Terrorism: A Cost-Benefit Analysis |
Dec 2011 |
171 pages |
| Authors:
Fazal ur Rehman Khan; Khaldon Haya Al-Rawashdeh; Jose R Reyes Irizarry; Raja S Akram Minhas; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEFENSE ANALYSIS DEPT
|
| The cost-benefit equation of the Pakistan-U.S. alliance in the fight against terrorism reflects a direct correlation between the fluctuating patterns of U.S. assistance and their direct and indirect implications for Pakistan. While the United States strives to achieve a better return on its investment through military-oriented support, Pakistan seeks to adopt an approach that suits both the United States and its own domestic and regional interests. This research traces the ... |
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| Influence: The New Weapon in the Battle for Southeast Asia |
Dec 2011 |
79 pages |
| Authors:
Richard Manning; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| This thesis will provide a background look at China's recent history from World War II to present day to examine how they are gaining influence in the South Pacific and Southeast Asia. China is determined to become a global power and increase its international standing in term of influence and Southeast Asia is the start point. This thesis will also examine different approaches the United States and China use to ... |
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| Design and Task Analysis for a Game-Based Shiphandling Simulator Using an Open Source Game Engine (DELTA3D) |
Sep 2011 |
152 pages |
| Authors:
Claudio C de Moraes; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| This thesis addresses the need for a navigation and shiphandling game-based training system at naval academies. The Yard Patrol Simulator (YPSim) is an application designed to reduce the knowledge gap between classroom instruction and hands-on training onboard naval academy training boats (YPs). The goal was to develop a proof-of-concept game-based simulator that uses 3D graphics to replicate basic tasks executed onboard the YPs. Two missions were selected for a brief ... |
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| Representing Trust in Cognitive Social Simulations |
Sep 2011 |
85 pages |
| Authors:
Shawnoah Pollock; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA MODELING VIRTUAL ENVIRONMENTS AND SIMULATION (MOVES)
|
| Trust plays a critical role in communications, strength of relationships, and information processing at the individual and group levels. Cognitive social simulations show promise in providing an experimental platform for the examination of social phenomena such as trust formation. This work is a novel attempt at trust representation in a cognitive social simulation using reinforcement learning algorithms. Initial algorithm development was completed within a standalone social network simulation and tested ... |
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| Analysis of Binary Voting Algorithms for Use in Fault-Tolerant and Secure Computing |
Aug 2011 |
6 pages |
| Authors:
Kevin A Kwiat; Alan Taylor; William Zwicker; Daniel Hill; Sean Wetzonis; Shangping Ren; AIR FORCE RESEARCH LAB ROME NY INFORMATION DIRECTORATE
|
| This paper examines three binary voting algorithms used with computer replication for fault tolerance and separately observes the resultant reliability and security. The paper offers insights to answer the following question: Can a voting algorithm provide a system with both security and reliability? The paper shows that while random dictator (i.e., randomly choosing one of the replicas) provides good security and majority rule yields good fault tolerance, neither is effective ... |
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| Capability and Interface Assessment of Gaming Technologies for Future Multi-Unmanned Air Vehicle Systems |
Aug 2011 |
34 pages |
| Authors:
Marc Gacy; ALION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY-MA&D BOULDER CO
|
| This report evaluates several gaming technologies and details their applicability to future control concepts for multiple unmanned air vehicle systems (UAS). Current gaming technologies evaluated include Real-Time Strategy (RTS) games, which require the simultaneous control of multiple entities; Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games (MMORPG), which necessitate the management of multiple independent entities with sophisticated capabilities; and finally, arcade-style games, which demand the use of mitigation strategies to contend with ... |
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| QoS-T: Quality of Service Throttling to Elicit User Cooperation in Computer Systems |
Aug 2011 |
17 pages |
| Authors:
Vidyaraman Sankaranarayanan; Shambhu Upadhyaya; Kevin Kwiat; AIR FORCE RESEARCH LAB ROME NY
|
| While there exist strong security concepts and mechanisms, implementation and enforcement of these security measures is a critical concern in the security domain. Normal users, unaware of the implications of their actions, often attempt to bypass or relax the security mechanisms in place, seeking instead increased performance or ease of use. Thus, the human in the loop becomes the weakest link. This shortcoming adds a level of uncertainty unacceptable in ... |
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| Guidelines and Tools for VBS2 Mission After Action Reviews: Development and Evaluation |
Jul 2011 |
|
| Authors:
Richard Topolski; Chris Green; Bruce Leibrecht; Nicole Rossi; AUGUSTA STATE UNIV GA
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| This report documents the creation and evaluation of a guide designed to assist facilitators who conduct after action reviews (AAR) of missions executed using the Virtual Battlespace-2 (VBS2) game. Observations of course-related exercises suggest there is a clear need for the guide. The results of the formative evaluation and an exploratory investigation indicate the guide meets the need. The guide is available as a stand-alone document in ARI Research Product ... |
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| These Are Ours: The Effects of Ownership and Groups on Property Negotiation |
Jul 2011 |
17 pages |
| Authors:
Peter J Carnevale; Yoo K Kim; Celso M De Melo; Morteza Dehghani; Jonathan Gratch; UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES
|
| Ownership tends to affect negotiation by increasing the value that the negotiator places on the objects being negotiated. In this study, we invented a new computer-controlled negotiation task that presents negotiators pictures of objects on a screen and the negotiators grab the objects, or give them to an opponent, using a mouse. We experimentally varied ownership, telling negotiators in one case that they owned the objects (but needed the other's ... |
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| Buying Hearts and Minds: Modeling Popular Support During an Insurgency Via a Sequential Vote-Buying Game |
08 JUN 2011 |
119 pages |
| Authors:
Baris Yildiz; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| The population plays a crucial role in the outcome of an insurgency. The government needs intelligence from the population to effectively target and defeat the insurgents. In this thesis, we adapt a vote-buying model from political science to the insurgency context to analyze the level of intelligence the population will provide to the government. The model is a two-player sequential game in which both the government and insurgents can pay ... |
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| A Relay-Rover Differential Game |
JUN 2011 |
162 pages |
| Authors:
Youngdong Choi; AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH DEPT OF AERONAUTICS AND ASTRONAUTICS
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| Guidance laws are developed to optimally position a relay Micro-UAV (MAV) to provide an operator at the base with real-time Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) by relaying communication and video signals when the rover MAV performing the ISR mission is out of radio contact range with the base. The ISR system is comprised of two MAVs, the Relay and the Rover, and a Base. The Relay strives to minimize the ... |
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| Understanding the Potential of Virtual Environments for Improving C2 Performance |
JUN 2011 |
36 pages |
| Authors:
Ken Hudson; Mark E. Nissen; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| Effective Command and Control (C2) is enabled by information technology, but the potential of C2 through virtual environments offers opportunities for radical increases in awareness and performance. To realize such radical increases, we are engaged in a campaign of experimentation to assess C2 in virtual environments through the ELICIT (Experimental Laboratory for Investigating Collaboration, Information-sharing, and Trust) multiplayer online counterterrorism intelligence game. Currently ELICIT has only a primitive textual interface. ... |
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| Game Theory, Adaptation, and Genetic Programming: Some Perspectives on Operations Research for Counter-IED |
JUN 2011 |
37 pages |
| Authors:
Anthony H. Dekker; DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ORGANISATION (AUSTRALIA) JOINT OPERATIONS DIVISION
|
| This paper explores Operations Research issues in the response to Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), using the concept of a "fitness landscape." In particular, we examine optimisation approaches that assume a fixed fitness landscape for Blue actions; game-theoretic approaches where fitness is associated with the combination of Red and Blue actions; and approaches that assume fitness landscapes are constantly changing as a result of Red and Blue adaptivity. In particular, we ... |
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| Escalation and Resolution of Border Disputes and Interstate Conflicts in Africa: The Malawi-Tanzania Case |
JUN 2011 |
87 pages |
| Authors:
Fulgence S. Msafiri; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| Border disputes cause strife worldwide, especially in underdeveloped countries. In Africa, border disputes are commonplace, and they produce bitter conflicts and tribulations. This thesis investigates the border dispute between Malawi and Tanzania over Lake Nyasa. It argues that the protracted dispute is the result of inaction and poor leadership, rather than colonial legacy. Using game theory, this thesis demonstrates that partial sum games produce the best path for resolving this ... |
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| Changing the Afghan Cycle of Conflict from the Outside, In |
JUN 2011 |
205 pages |
| Authors:
Aamir Masood; Khaldon Al-Rawashdeh; Marcus S. Hunter; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| This study explores the cyclical nature of conflict in Afghanistan and the elusive condition of stability as coalition forces begin their anticipated drawdown in 2011, and complete transition of security to Afghan forces in 2014. Assuming that the basic societal elements of stability require a balancing of political, economic, and security structures to form a sense of national cohesion, this study seeks to determine if national cohesion is sufficient enough ... |
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| The Mathematics of Aggregation, Interdependence, Organizations and Systems of Nash Equilibria (NE): A Replacement for Game Theory |
Jun 2011 |
14 pages |
| Authors:
William F Lawless; Donald A Sofge; ARMY ENGINEER DISTRICT NEW ENGLAND CONCORD MA
|
| Traditional social science research has been unable to satisfactorily aggregate individual level data to group, organization and systems levels, making it one of social science's biggest challenges, if not the most important (Giles, 2011). For game and social theory, we believe that the fault can be attributed to the lack of valid distance measures (e.g., the arbitrary ordering of cooperation and competition precludes a Hilbert space distance metric for gradations ... |
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| Considerations for Adaptive Tutoring Within Serious Games: Authoring Cognitive Models and game Interfaces |
Jun 2011 |
11 pages |
| Authors:
Robert A Sottilare; Stephen Gilbert; ARMY RESEARCH LAB ORLANDO FL HUMAN RESEARCH AND ENGINEERING DIRECTORATE
|
| In reflecting on a recent emphasis on self-directed learning using game-based simulations and virtual worlds, the authors considered key challenges in transforming serious games and virtual worlds into adaptive training tools. This article reflects specifically on the challenges and potential of cognitive modeling techniques for game-based tutors and game integration with computer-based. Finally, as we integrate tutors and games, a rubric is offered to identify some of the salient characteristics ... |
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| Situational Awareness |
24 MAR 2011 |
12 pages |
| Authors:
Patricia A. Hickman; SOUTHWEST RESEARCH INST SAN ANTONIO TX
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| PURPOSE/FOCUS. Purpose: * Define the problems and approaches in greater fidelity based on input from panels * Develop courses of action or methodologies to reconcile issues identified * Develop recommendations for DoD leadership on the process/steps needed to develop the structure for and methodology to perform cyber SA assessments. Focus: * Develop potential characteristics of an initial framework that will enable the scoping and prioritization of cyber SA assessments * ... |
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| Network Centric Warfare in the Age of Cyberspace Operations |
22 MAR 2011 |
34 pages |
| Authors:
II Folks Richard L.; ARMY WAR COLL CARLISLE BARRACKS PA
|
| The emergence of cyberspace as a new warfighting domain and the DOD's establishment of Cyberspace Command make clear the United States' intent to gain superiority in this emerging area vital to overarching national interests. In the early 1990s a "theory of war" focused on information technology and networking rose to the forefront of military thinking with the emergence of Vice Admiral Arthur Cebrowski's Net-Centric Warfare. At the time it was ... |
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| Adversarial Risk Analysis for Dynamic Network Routing |
20 MAR 2011 |
60 pages |
| Authors:
David Banks; DUKE UNIV DURHAM NC OFFICE OF RESEARCH SUPPORT
|
| Route selection in hostile terrain is a problem in adversarial risk analysis (ARA). This report summarizes work done to date that addresses the routing problem from the perspective of decision analysis, which takes account of both asymmetric uncertainties and the strategy of an intelligent opponent. The methodology is novel, and usefully different from traditional game theory or risk analysis. The main results of this funding are (1) a paper that ... |
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| A Zero-Sum Electromagnetic Evader-Interrogator Differential Game with Uncertainty |
21 Feb 2011 |
33 pages |
| Authors:
H T Banks; Shuhua Hu; NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIV AT RALEIGH CENTER FOR RESEARCH IN SCIENTIFIC COMPUTATION
|
| We consider dynamic electromagnetic evasion-interrogation games in which the evader can use ferroelectric material coatings to attempt to avoid detection while the interrogator can manipulate the interrogating frequencies to enhance detection. The resulting problem is formulated as a two-player zero-sum dynamic differential game in which the cost functional is based on the expected value of the intensity of the reflected signal. We show that there exists a saddle point for ... |
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| European Energy Security: Reducing Volatility of Ukraine-Russia Natural Gas Pricing Disputes |
FEB 2011 |
17 pages |
| Authors:
Richard B. Andres; Michael Kofman; NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIV WASHINGTON DC INST FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES
|
| On January 7, 2009, the existing energy relationship among Europe, Russia, and Ukraine broke down over a natural gas dispute, just as it had done 3 years earlier. Amid subzero temperatures in many parts of Europe, Russia turned off its gas supply to Ukraine, causing shortages in more than 20 European countries. Thousands across the continent were left in the dark, and government services were closed. While the flow of ... |
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| Global Shipping Game |
28 JAN 2011 |
74 pages |
| Authors:
Doug Ducharme; Hank Brightman; NAVAL WAR COLL NEWPORT RI DEPT OF WAR GAMING
|
| During the period 8-9 December 2010, the United States Naval War College (NWC) in Newport, Rhode Island hosted the Global Shipping Game (GSG). The GSG was developed and executed at the direction of the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO). The purpose of the GSG was to explore strategic-level implications as a result of future changes in global shipping patterns. The CNO directed the NWC to develop a game that would ... |
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| Composing Effective Environments for Concept Exploration in a Multi-Agency Context |
2011 |
29 pages |
| Authors:
Helen Mitchard; Simon Ng; DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ORGANISATION CANBERRA (AUSTRALIA)
|
| There is a need to integrate a range of stakeholders, both military and non-military, into the planning and conduct of operations, both civil and military. These endeavors necessitate the inclusion of many stakeholders each of which bring diverse agendas, values, and differing degrees of experience and training. Anecdotes suggest that techniques used to inform planning and subsequent operations often fail to reflect the complexity of such multi-agency environments. We report ... |
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| An Evaluation of Game-based Training Effectiveness: Context Matters |
Dec 2010 |
12 pages |
| Authors:
Krista L Ratwani; Kara L Orvis; Bruce Knerr; ARMY RESEARCH INST FOR THE BEHAVIORAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCES ORLANDO FL
|
| Army trainers are increasingly turning to alternative training methods to exploit low-cost, technology-based solutions to fill critical training gaps and increase training effectiveness. One technological approach that bas received increased interest over the last decade is game-based training. Army agencies and organizations have recognized that games have the potential to augment military training for both individuals and collectives. However compared to more traditional training effectiveness and design studies, empirical investigation ... |
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| Partial Leading in Pursuit and Evasion Games |
Dec 2010 |
13 pages |
| Authors:
Chris Arney; Elisha Peterson; MILITARY ACADEMY WEST POINT NY DEPT OF MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
|
| Pursuit and evasion games encompass a large class of games in which one or more pursuers attempt to find and/or capture one or more evaders . These games have immense practical importance, yet their mathematics is not fully-understood outside of a limited number of simple cases. This paper introduces PursuitSim, a simulation platform for pursuit and evasion games in which the user interactively explores these games by dynamically adjusting algorithm ... |
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| Valuing Flexibility |
09 NOV 2010 |
68 pages |
| Authors:
Abhi Deshmukh; Marty Wortman; Paul Collopy; Barry Boehm; JoAnn Lane; Winsor Brown; Alan Levine; Dave Jacques; John Colombi; Tom Housel; Johnathan Mun; Ray Madachy; Kevin Sullivan; AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH
|
| The primary objective of the research presented in this briefing is to develop convincing quantitative methods, processes, and tools (MPTs) for determining the value of flexibility in DoD contexts. A system is flexible to the extent that it can be cost-effectively modified to meet new needs or to capitalize on new opportunities. |
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| Ambiguity Priming Facilitates Pattern Detection and Resistance to Set-Shifting |
01 OCT 2010 |
8 pages |
| Authors:
Lilianne R. Mujica-Parodi; STATE UNIV OF NEW YORK AT STONY BROOK
|
| The goal of this grant was to test the ambiguity-priming hypothesis empirically, as well as to provide a quantitative description of this behavior using approaches borrowed from game theory. Ambiguity-priming was behaviorally tested with N=20 individuals at the visual perceptual level with a motion detection task including points with probabilistic coherence. We did not find evidence for the hypothesis that ambiguity priming facilitates pattern detection or influences set-shifting in the ... |
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| A Two-Player Zero-Sum Electromagnetic Differential Game with Uncertainty |
18 Sep 2010 |
15 pages |
| Authors:
H T Banks; Shuhua Hu; NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIV AT RALEIGH CENTER FOR RESEARCH IN SCIENTIFIC COMPUTATION
|
| We consider dynamic electromagnetic evasion-interrogation games where the evader can use ferroelectric material coatings to attempt to avoid detection while the interrogator can manipulate the interrogating frequencies to enhance detection. The resulting problem is formulated as a two-player zero-sum dynamic differential game in which the cost functional is based on the expected value of the intensity of the reflected signal. We show that there exists a saddle point for the ... |
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| UrbanSim-Counterinsurgency Computer Training Game [interview], Episode 57 of the Armed with Science Series (Podcast) |
03 MAR 2010 |
1 pages |
| Authors:
John Ohab; Andrew Gordon; OFFICE OF THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE (PUBLIC AFFAIRS) WASHINGTON DC DEFENSE MEDIA ACTIVITY
|
| The U.S. Army Research, Development, and Engineering Command, and the University of Southern California (USC) Institute for Creative Technologies, are collaborating to develop UrbanSim, a computer game that helps the military train for urban environments such as those encountered in some areas of Iraq and Afghanistan. USC Professor Dr. Andrew Gordon joined the program to talk about the game's story-driven elements and the integration of real-world and nonfictional stories. |
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| The Long History of Gaming in Military Training |
Feb 2010 |
13 pages |
| Authors:
Roger Smith; ARMY PEO (SIMULATION TRAINING AND INSTRUMENTATION) ORLANDO FL
|
| There is a long history of the dual-use of games in both the military and the entertainment applications. This has taken the form of sand tables, miniatures, board games, and computer games. The current tension between entertainment and military applications of games is just the return of similar concerns that surrounded the gaming tools and technologies of previous generations. Dynamic representations of the physical world are interesting and useful tools ... |
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| Optimal Time and Energy Efficiency in Legged Robotics |
18-Sep-2009 |
14 pages |
| Authors:
Paul Muench; Ka C Cheok; Gregory P Czerniak; TACOM RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT AND ENGINEERING CENTER WARREN MI
|
| Legged vehicles are far more mobile than wheeled. This briefing looks at various algorithms applicable to optimization of mobility. |
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| Game-Theoretic Anti-Submarine Warfare Mission Planner (Heuristic-Based, Fully Excel Capable) |
Sep-2009 |
76 pages |
| Authors:
Scott D Scherer; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| This thesis introduces a Game-Theoretic Anti-Submarine Warfare Mission Planner (G-TAMP) that can quickly operate on a Navy Marine Corps Intranet (NMCI) computer without any software other than NMCI-standard Microsoft Office, Visual Basic for Applications (VBA), and a freely-available optimization package called LP SOLVE employed as a dynamically linked library. We replace the expensive and non-NMCI approved mathematical modeling software used by Adam Thomas in his 2008 thesis with a purpose-built, ... |
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| TEMPO Software Modifications for SEVER Evaluation |
Sep-2009 |
131 pages |
| Authors:
Ronald F Clemens; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| In this thesis, we present a software package update facilitating the evaluation of the Systems Engineering Value Equation with Risk (SEVER) using the TEMPO Military Planning Game originally developed by General Electric in the 1960's. Currently it is used by Naval Postgraduate School to train future military decision makers in making critical resource allocation decisions. The intent of this development facilitates creating a software decision tool adaptable to different software-based ... |
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| Social Networks: Rational Learning and Information Aggregation |
SEP 2009 |
142 pages |
| Authors:
Ilan Lobel; ALFRED P SLOAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT CAMBRIDGE MA
|
| This thesis studies the learning problem of a set of agents connected via a general social network. We address the question of how dispersed information spreads in social networks and whether the information is efficiently aggregated in large societies. The models developed in this thesis allow us to study the learning behavior of rational agents embedded in complex networks. We analyze the perfect Bayesian equilibrium of a dynamic game where ... |
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| Choosing Among Causal Agents in a Dynamic Environment |
30-Jul-2009 |
9 pages |
| Authors:
Michael E Young; SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UNIV AT CARBONDALE
|
| Participants in a video game environment were required to make a series of decisions in which they must identify which of three targets was causing a distal explosion. The potential targets were firing weapons which could produce an explosion after a constant or variable delay, a delay that was filled or unfilled with an auditory event, and may have produced explosions probabilistically. Delays had profound effects on accuracy and decision ... |
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| Risk of Using Past to Predict Future: A Case Study of Jamming RCIEDs |
Jun-2009 |
95 pages |
| Authors:
Jeffrey A Dayton; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| The radio controlled improvised explosive device (RCIED) is one of the deadliest threats to military personnel supporting the global war on terrorism, and due to its success is expected to play a major role as a weapon of choice in future insurgencies. To mitigate the risk of a RCIED attack, electronic jamming devices are utilized to interrupt the communications between a remote control and the RCIED trigger. We consider two ... |
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| Trust-Mistrust as a Design Contingency: Laboratory Experimentation in a Counterterrorism Context |
Jun-2009 |
40 pages |
| Authors:
Mark E Nissen; Edward H Powley; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC POLICY
|
| Trust research assumes organizational managers ought to establish high levels of trust. Research also suggests trust is decreasing and therefore raises an important managerial dilemma. We study trust from a contingency theory framework and hypothesize that trust levels may vary depending on different organizational designs. Using the ELICIT multiplayer intelligence game we conduct laboratory experiments to examine the effect of trust levels and organizational design on performance. Results are mixed: ... |
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| Multi-level Operational C2 Holonic Reference Architecture Modeling for MHQ with MOC |
Jun-2009 |
39 pages |
| Authors:
David L Kleinman; Krishna R Pattipati; Chulwoo Park; CONNECTICUT UNIV STORRS DEPT OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCE
|
| The purpose of this paper is to present a multi-level operational C2 holonic reference architecture that is applicable to Navy maritime headquarters (MHQ) with maritime operations center (MOC) for assessing, planning and executing multiple missions and tasks across a range of military operations. The control architecture consists of three levels: strategic level control (SLC), operational level control (OLC) and tactical level control (TLC). In addition to coordination within each level, ... |
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| Foul WX Underground: The Dynamics of Resistance and the Analog Logic of Communication during a Digital Blackout |
21-May-2009 |
72 pages |
| Authors:
Michael D Parsons; ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED MILITARY STUDIES
|
| The current inter-agency doctrinal tools to integrate the decision-sharing elements of battle command at the operational level for defense support to civil authority operations are inadequate under conditions of extremely degraded communications. The rapidly integrated, often ad hoc, civil-military command structures suffer an over-reliance on the availability of digital connectivity to overcome basic frictions of organizational culture. We are not prepared for a digital blackout. Under the conditions of a ... |
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| The Goal-Means (GM) Meta Model |
May-2009 |
45 pages |
| Authors:
Elisa Bienenstock; Pamela Toman; Kari Kelton; Allison Astorino-Courtois; Stacy Lovell-Pfautz; Robert Popp; NATIONAL SECURITY INNOVATIONS (NSI) INC BOSTON MA
|
| National Security Innovations (NSI) developed a Goals-Means (GM) Meta-model of leadership decision-making as a component of the IARPA PAINT system. The GM Meta Model instantiates social psychological theories on human decision-making into a java program that provides analysts with a tool to replicate and deconstruct the complex decision calculus. The tool incorporates a range of decision criteria, heuristics and styles to approximate real human decision making to capture the values ... |
|
| Global '08, U.S. Navy Title X War Game: Implementing the Maritime Strategy, 4-8 August 2008. Game Report |
Mar 2009 |
81 pages |
| Authors:
INSPECTOR GENERAL DEPT OF DEFENSE ARLINGTON VA
|
| During the period 4-8 August 2008, the Navy s Title X War Game, Global 08, was held at the Naval War College (NWC) in Newport, Rhode Island. The game focused on developing insights regarding the capabilities, capacities, and risks associated with implementation of A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower (CS 21). The game organizers assigned over 190 participants, including representatives from 19 foreign navies, to one of seven cells ... |
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| Control Theoretic Modeling for Uncertain Cultural Attitudes and Unknown Adversarial Intent |
Feb-2009 |
8 pages |
| Authors:
Jeff Shamma; Munther Dahleh; Asuman Ozdaglar; CALIFORNIA UNIV LOS ANGELES DEPT OF MECHANICAL AND AEROSPACE ENGINEERING
|
| The focus of the project is to develop control theoretic models with supporting decision making methods to address the problem of strategic decision making for military operations in an environment that is strongly influenced by the presence of interacting subcultures. The specific directions of the project are: (1) Modeling of social behaviors that address incomplete information and indeterminate models for uncertainty management. (2) Robust decision-making based on incentive design, optimization, ... |
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| Responding to Counterterrorism Threats: Effects of Coalition Trust and Mistrust on Organizational Design |
Feb-2009 |
52 pages |
| Authors:
Mark E Nissen; Edward H Powley; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| Most research assumes organizational managers should establish high levels of trust. Other scholars suggest trust is declining and therefore raises an important managerial dilemma. We present a study of trust based on contingency theory and hypothesize that trust levels may vary depending on alternative organizational designs. Using ELICIT, a multiplayer intelligence game, we conduct laboratory experiments to examine the relationship between trust levels, organizational design, and performance measures. Results show ... |
|
| New Algorithms for Collaborative and Adversarial Decision Making in Partially Observable Stochastic Games |
14-Jan-2009 |
11 pages |
| Authors:
Shlomo Zilberstein; MASSACHUSETTS UNIV AMHERST
|
| The project has produced new computational models and algorithms for coordination, prediction and planning in situations involving multiple decision makers that operate over an extended period of time in either collaborative or adversarial domains. This includes the development of the decentralized partially-observable Markov decision process (DEC-POMDP) model, memory-bounded algorithm for solving finite-horizon DEC-POMDPs, sparse representations of agent strategies using finite-state controllers, bounded policy iteration algorithms for infinite-horizon DEC-POMDPs, and algorithms ... |
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| Wargaming Strategic Linkage |
Jan-2009 |
|
| Authors:
Peter P Perla; Michael C Markowitz; CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA
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 | The War Gaming Department (WGD) of the Naval War College (NWC) asked CNA to identify key game-design issues and to develop recommendations for more effectively representing the linkage between the strategic, operational/strategic, and operational levels of war, especially as applied to future Navy Title X Global War Games (GWG). We researched existing wargame systems and interviewed leading wargaming practitioners, both in government and in industry, to learn how others have ... |
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GAME THEORY
