| Generating Delft3D Boundary Conditions Using the Navy Coastal Ocean Model |
20 Dec 2012 |
16 pages |
| Authors:
Kacey Edwards; Tiffany Nguyen; David Sitton; NAVAL RESEARCH LAB STENNIS DETACHMENT STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS OCEANOGRAPHY DIV
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 | The Delft3D modeling system is often used to provide operational forecasts of littoral hydrodynamics. One method of providing boundary conditions to the system is to extract data from regional model results. Software was developed to extract data from results of the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) and to write DElft3D-FLOW boundary conditions. The software was used to generate boundary conditions for a variety of Delft3D-FLOW scenarios, and the generated boundary ... |
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| A Study of Slovenian Armed Forces Ammunition Forecasting Methodology |
14 Dec 2012 |
78 pages |
| Authors:
Robert Slak; ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS
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| The purpose of this research is to investigate the ammunition forecasting methods used by the Slovenian Armed Forces (SAF) to determine if these methods will be capable of supporting the future military challenges of the SAF in coalition operations led by NATO, the European Union, and the United Nations. Two major planning methodologies are currently in use in military organizations: Level of Effort Methodology and Target-Oriented Methodology. This study describes ... |
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| What is the Role of Heavy Armor in the Army of 2020? |
06 Dec 2012 |
61 pages |
| Authors:
Elliott L Rogers; ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED MILITARY STUDIES
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| With operations in Iraq complete and the transition out of Afghanistan ongoing, what is the role of the heavy armor force in the Army of 2020? Although several senior leaders have stated that armor will play a significant role in the future, none have articulated what that role will be. As the Army deals with force reduction and economic constraints, it also must prepare a future fighting force to succeed ... |
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| Forecast Skill and Computational Cost of the Correlation Models in 3DVAR Data Assimilation |
30 Nov 2012 |
14 pages |
| Authors:
M Yaremchuk; M Carrier; H Ngodock; S Smith; I Shulman; NAVAL RESEARCH LAB STENNIS DETACHMENT STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS OCEANOGRAPHY DIV
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| Many background error correlation (BEC) models in data assimilation are formulated in terms of a positive-definite smoothing operator B which simulates the action of correlation matrix on a vector in state space. To estimate the efficiency of such approach, numerical experiments with the Gaussian and spline models have been conducted. Here I is the identity operator and nu is the diffusion tensor, whose spatial variability is derived from the forecast ... |
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| Lake Michigan Storm: Wave and Water Level Modeling |
Nov 2012 |
331 pages |
| Authors:
Robert E Jensen; Mary A Cialone; Raymond S Chapman; Bruce A Ebersole; Mary Anderson; Leonette Thomas; ENGINEER RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER VICKSBURG MS COASTAL AND HYDRAULICS LAB
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| This report documents the methodologies used, procedures followed to generate wind, wave, and storm surge estimates for 150 preselected extreme storm events along the Lake Michigan coastline. These simulations provide a storm climatology spanning 60-years (1960 through 2009). Two methodologies are used to generate the wind and pressure fields for the Lake Michigan region. The NOAA/NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, a 30-year (1979 through 2009) archive data set providing gridded ... |
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| Wave Dissipation and Balance - NOPP Wave Project |
30 Sep 2012 |
9 pages |
| Authors:
Fabrice Ardhuin; IFREMER CENTRE DE BREST PLOUZANE (FRANCE) LABORATOIRE D'OCEANOGRAPHIE SPATIALE
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| Wind-generated waves play a prominent role at the interfaces of the ocean with the atmosphere, land and solid Earth. Waves also define in many ways the appearance of the ocean seen by remote-sensing instruments. Beyond these geophysical aspects, waves also affect human activities at sea and on the coast. The long-term goals of this research are to obtain a better understanding of the physical processes that affect ocean surface waves ... |
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| Observation-Based Dissipation and Input Terms for Spectral Wave Models, with End-User Testing |
30 Sep 2012 |
12 pages |
| Authors:
Alexander V Babanin; Ian R Young; W E Rogers; Jane M Smith; Hendrik L Tolman; NAVAL RESEARCH LAB STENNIS DETACHMENT STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS
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| The long-term goal is to implement input and dissipation source functions, based on advanced understanding of physics of air-sea interactions, wave breaking and swell attenuation, in wave-forecast models. The objectives are to use new observation-based source terms for the wind input, wave-breaking (whitecapping) dissipation and swell decay in the third-generation models WAVEWATCHIII and SWAN. Calibration and performance of the source functions have to satisfy a set of physical constraints, and ... |
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| Refined Source Terms in WAVEWATCH III with Wave Breaking and Sea Spray Forecasts |
30 Sep 2012 |
7 pages |
| Authors:
Michael L Banner; Russel P Morison; NEW SOUTH WALES UNIV SYDNEY (AUSTRALIA) SCHOOL OF MATHEMATICS
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| Several U.S. Federal Agencies operate wind wave prediction models for a variety of mission specific purposes. Much of the basic science contained in the physics core of these models is over a decade old, and incorporating recent research advances over the last decade will significantly upgrade the model physics. A major goal is to produce a refined set of source and sink terms for the wind input, dissipation and breaking, ... |
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| Monitoring of Arctic Conditions from a Virtual Constellation of Synthetic Aperture Radar Satellites |
30 Sep 2012 |
6 pages |
| Authors:
Hans C Graber; Peter J Minnett; MIAMI UNIV FL ROSENSTIEL SCHOOL OF MARINE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
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| LONG-TERM GOALS: Utilize a constellation of satellite radars to monitor the melting and freezing cycles of the Arctic Ocean north of 65 deg. From difference maps of a timeseries of images deduce changes in ice extent, ice-type, and lead expansion/contraction with temporal resolutions from hours to days. Ultimately provide a routine Arctic coverage and generate products for operational purposes, and as validation, boundary conditions, and initialization to numerical ice-ocean forecast ... |
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| Physically Consistent Eddy-resolving State Estimation and Prediction of the Coupled Pan-Arctic Climate System at Daily to Interannual Time Scales Using the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM) |
30 Sep 2012 |
10 pages |
| Authors:
Wieslaw Maslowski; Andrew Roberts; John Cassano; Mimi Hughes; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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| The overall science goal of this project is to address the short to long-term US Navy / DOD (Arctic Roadmap, 2009) and national requirements (Roberts et al., 2010) to understand and predict arctic climate change. The proposed research leverages ongoing developments of the state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM) through a multi-institutional program supported by the Department of Energy Regional and Global Climate Modeling (DOE/RGCM) program and two ongoing complementary ... |
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| TSA - A Two Scale Approximation for Wind-Generated Ocean Surface Waves |
30 Sep 2012 |
9 pages |
| Authors:
William Perrie; Donald T Resio; Charles E Long; ARMY ENGINEER WATERWAYS EXPERIMENT STATION KITTY HAWK NC FIELD RESEARCH FACILITY
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| Long-Term Goals include: (a) To provide an accurate, efficient, computational model (two-scale approximation, TSA) for the 4-wave interactions, in operational wave forecast models, suitable for global, basin and coastal scale applications, and able to transition seamlessly from deep to shallow water. (b) Fully test TSA with respect to exact codes for the full Boltzmann integral (FBI), for duration-limited, fetch-limited wave growth, turning winds, swell-wind-sea, interactions, etc. (c) Numerically investigate and ... |
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| Physical-Biological-Optics Model Development and Simulation for the Pacific Ocean and Monterey Bay, California |
30 Sep 2012 |
11 pages |
| Authors:
Fei Chai; Emmanuel Boss; MAINE UNIV AT ORONO SCHOOL OF MARINE SCIENCES
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| LONG-TERM GOALS: Modeling and predicting ocean optical properties requires linking optical properties with the physical, chemical, and biological processes in the upper ocean. Our long-term goal is to incorporate optical processes into coupled physical-biological models for both open ocean and coastal waters, develop and improve integrated ocean forecasting systems, including prediction of ocean optical properties. |
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| Bayesian Hierarchical Model Characterization of Model Error in Ocean Data Assimilation and Forecasts |
28 Sep 2012 |
16 pages |
| Authors:
Ralph F Milliff; Christopher K Wikle; L M Berliner; Radu Herbei; NORTHWEST RESEARCH ASSOCIATES BOULDER CO COLORADO RESEARCH ASSOCIATES DIV
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| Quantitative uncertainty management attributes of the Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) methodology are applied to the identification, characterization, and modelling of irreducible model error in ocean data assimilation and forecast systems. |
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| A Comparison of Earned Value and Earned Schedule Duration Forecast Methods on Department of Defense Major Defense Acquisition Programs |
Sep 2012 |
59 pages |
| Authors:
William J Bruchey; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC POLICY
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| Earned value management is a project management tool that integrates project scope with cost, schedule, and performance elements for optimum project planning and control. Earned value management is required by the Department of Defense for cost and incentive type contracts equal or greater than $20 million as part of a comprehensive approach to improving critical acquisitions. It is used to forecast the program's schedule performance using cost-based indicators but not ... |
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| Toward Improving Short-Range Fog Prediction in Data-Denied Areas Using the Air Force Weather Agency Mesoscale Ensemble |
Sep 2012 |
249 pages |
| Authors:
William R Ryerson; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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| This work develops and tests the viability of a new framework for producing short-range (20 h) probabilistic fog predictions using post-processing of a 4-km, 10-member Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) ensemble configured to closely match the Air Force Weather Agency Mesoscale Ensemble Forecast System. The raw WRF predictions produce excessive forecasts of zero cloud water, mainly caused by a negative relative humidity bias, which is largely traced to a warm ... |
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| Asia-Pacific Economic Update, 2012. Volume 3 |
Sep 2012 |
51 pages |
| Authors:
Brooks B Robinson; PACIFIC COMMAND CAMP H M SMITH HI
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| Potentially the most important factors determining Asia's economic growth internationally in 2012 are US slow economic growth and the debt crisis in the European Union (EU). Clearly, the extent to which Europe can right its economic boat and set sail again will affect the pace of growth in Asia. In addition, the US's capacity to expand its 2011 $1.2 trillion in merchandise trade with the Asia-Pacific region in 2012, will ... |
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| Understanding and Managing Propagation on Large Networks - Theory, Algorithms, and Models |
Sep 2012 |
233 pages |
| Authors:
B A Prakash; CARNEGIE-MELLON UNIV PITTSBURGH PA DEPT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE
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| How do contagions spread in population networks? What happens if the networks change with time? Which hospitals should we give vaccines to, for maximum effect? How to detect sources of rumors on Twitter/Facebook? These questions and many others such as which group should we market to, for maximizing product penetration, how quickly news travels in online media and how the relative frequencies of competing tasks evolve are all related to ... |
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| High-Resolution Hydrographic Surveys Near the Shelfbreak in the East China Sea: Joint Studies with National Taiwan University |
23 Aug 2012 |
7 pages |
| Authors:
Glen Gawarkiewicz; WOODS HOLE OCEANOGRAPHIC INSTITUTION MA DEPT OF PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY
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| For this project, we jointly planned and executed a major field program in the East China Sea northeast of Taiwan. We along with our Taiwanese collaborators performed high-resolution hydrographic surveys over the outer continental shelf and upper continental slope during August/September 2009. The field work was in close collaboration with numerical modelers from MIT who were assimilating the high-resolution hydrographic data into their model and producing ocean circulation forecasts including ... |
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| Culture, Identity, and Information Technology in the 21st Century: Implications for U.S. National Security |
Aug 2012 |
38 pages |
| Authors:
Pauline Kusiak; ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA
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| This monograph describes strategic trends in cultural change and identity formation in the 21st century. While it is impossible to predict credibly the values and beliefs of future generations, the first part of the monograph provides a modest forecast by tracing global trends in the use of language and media, as well as in the use of information and communication technologies. The second part then draws out potential implications of ... |
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| Applying the Training Range Environmental Evaluation and Characterization System (TREECS) (User Guide) |
Aug 2012 |
208 pages |
| Authors:
Jeffrey A Gerald; Billy E Johnson; Mark S Dortch; ENGINEER RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER VICKSBURG MS ENVIRONMENTAL LAB
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| This report was developed to provide a user guide and tutorial for applying the Training Range Environmental Evaluation and Characterization System (TREECS(TM)). The purpose of TREECS(TM) is to provide the Army with varying levels of capability to forecast the fate of and environmental risk from munitions constituents (MC), such as high explosives (HE), present in and transported from firing/training ranges to surface water and groundwater. The overall objective is to ... |
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| The Identification of Military Installations as Important Migratory Bird Stopover Sites and the Development of Bird Migration Forecast Models: A Radar Ornithology Approach |
Aug 2012 |
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| Authors:
Richard A Fischer; Michael P Guilfoyle; Jonathon Valente; Jr Gauthreaux Sidney A; Carroll G Belser; John W Blaricom Donald V; Emily Cohen; Frank R Moore; ENGINEER RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER VICKSBURG MS ENVIRONMENTAL LAB
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 | Military lands and waters may be particularly valuable for migrating birds requiring stopover habitat to rest and refuel en route to very distant seasonal ranges. Recent developments in radar technology have provided powerful tools for investigating on a broad scale migrant use of military installations; thus providing an opportunity to improve both conservation and flight safety measures. In this study, spring and fall migrant use of 40 military installations across ... |
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| Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle: DOD Is Addressing Knowledge Gaps in Its New Acquisition Strategy |
Jul 2012 |
33 pages |
| Authors:
Cristina T Chaplain; Art Gallegos; Claire Buck; Desiree Cunningham; John Krump; Bob Swierczek; GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY OFFICE WASHINGTON DC
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| DOD began the EELV program in 1995 to provide a new generation of launch vehicles to ensure affordable access to space for government satellites. It resulted in two families of commercially owned and operated launch vehicles Boeing s Delta IV and Lockheed Martin s Atlas V. It also includes manufacturing and launch site facilities and ground support systems. Each family of launch vehicles consists of medium-, intermediate-, and heavy-lift vehicles. ... |
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| Bayesian Hierarchical Model Characterization of Model Error in Ocean Data Assimilation and Forecasts |
Jul 2012 |
8 pages |
| Authors:
Ralph F Milliff; Christopher K Wikle; L M Berliner; Radu Herbei; NORTHWEST RESEARCH ASSOCIATES BOULDER CO COLORADO RESEARCH ASSOCIATES DIV
|
| We seek to focus quantitative uncertainty management attributes of the Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) methodology on the identification, characterization, and evolution of irreducible model error in ocean data assimilation and forecast systems. Our project objectives are designed to build upon experience gained under prior Office of Naval Research (ONR) support. This annual report describes progress attained in projects led by PI Milliff in the first full year of funding. First ... |
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| Sedimentation Solutions for Military Ocean Terminal Sunny Point (MOTSU), North Carolina |
Jul 2012 |
162 pages |
| Authors:
Jeremy A Sharp; Jennifer N Tate; William H McAnally; ENGINEER RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER VICKSBURG MS COASTAL AND HYDRAULICS LAB
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| The US Army's Military Ocean Terminal Sunny Point (MOTSU) went into service in 1955, and serves as a military munitions terminal. The facility is located in Brunswick County, North Carolina, approximately 10 miles upstream of the mouth of the Cape Fear River. Shoaling issues have been a problem since the opening of the port. The objective of this work is three fold: reduce long term dredging costs, achieve operational readiness ... |
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| Predicting Pilot Retention |
15 Jun 2012 |
66 pages |
| Authors:
III Stanley Dale W; AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH GRADUATE SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT
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| The research problem is to determine if it is possible to predict future pilot retention based on factors internal and external to the Air Force to determine if there is a potential future shortage. Specifically, this research sought to answer three research questions about how future pilot inventories are forecast, determining if there are factors that may predict retention habits, and finally if a model can be formulated using those ... |
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| Analyzing Army Reserve Unsatisfactory Participants through Logistic Regression |
08 Jun 2012 |
71 pages |
| Authors:
Brian A Davis; ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS
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| The United States Army Reserve (USAR) provides forces critical to the success of the Regular Army and to support national military strategy as an operational force. The USAR continues to confront issues associated with a volunteer force serving in a part-time status. For a variety of reasons, some USAR Soldiers are unable to attend regular Battle Assemblies and Annual Training, which results in them being labeled Unsatisfactory Participants. This thesis ... |
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| Effect of the Environment and Environmental Uncertainty on Ship Routes |
Jun 2012 |
89 pages |
| Authors:
Stacey L Hall; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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| The United States Navy (USN) uses Optimal Track Ship Routing provided by ship routing officers (SRO) to aid in the safe transit of its ships. When a ship makes a transit, the ship provides the SRO an origin, a destination, and a date of departure, and the SRO will generate a route for the ship to proceed along. Avoiding severe weather is the most important consideration in determining the route. ... |
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| Statistical Analysis of Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the North Atlantic |
Jun 2012 |
87 pages |
| Authors:
Christopher E Nixon; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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| The skill of individual ensemble prediction systems (EPS) is evaluated in terms of the probability of a tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast being within an expected area. Anisotropic probability ellipses are defined from each EPS to contain 68% of the ensemble forecast members. Forecast reliability is based on whether the forecast verifying position is within the ellipse. A sharpness parameter is based on the size of the EPS probability ellipse ... |
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| China's Demographic Limits to Economic Growth |
Jun 2012 |
95 pages |
| Authors:
David M Truesdell; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS
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| China's demographic transition will create great difficulty in continuing the scale of economic development seen over the last 30 years. This difficulty will be experienced through the costs of the demographic detour, which began during the Great Leap Forward and was then magnified through the birth limiting campaigns up to and including the One-Child Policy. While the skewing of the dependency ratio over the last 30 years resulted in significant ... |
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| Analyzing Trends in Federal Government Surpluses and Deficits |
Jun 2012 |
45 pages |
| Authors:
Louis Jackson; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC POLICY
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| This project consists of an analysis of the federal budget through the years 1990-2020. The key issues to be addressed are as follows: (1) average percentage of deficit as a percentage Gross Domestic Product (GDP), (2) interest rate(s) on debt depending on forms of debt, (3) annual interest costs, (4) debt structure, (5) government outlay percentages relating to GDP, and (6) government receipt percentages related to GDP. The objectives are ... |
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| A Markov Model for Marine Corps Acquisition Force Planning |
Jun 2012 |
57 pages |
| Authors:
Chris L Nicholson; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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| This research is in response to a request by the Marine Aviation Detachment at Naval Air Station Patuxent River, MD. Currently, no manpower planning tools exist for force shaping of the Marine Corps Acquisition Community. This thesis creates a force shaping and forecasting tool for Marine Corps manpower planners. The tool assists planners in forecasting inventory levels across rank and Military Occupational Specialty combinations and in determining the most robust ... |
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| Time Series Forecasting of Airlift Sustainment Cargo Demand |
Jun 2012 |
95 pages |
| Authors:
Daniel S DeYoung; AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH GRADUATE SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT
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| Forecasting demand for airlift of sustainment cargo is an important function for logistics planners. For the civil reserve air fleet participants (CRAF), having a useful long-range forecast enables them to make business decisions to maximize profit and manage their fleets. Because the DoD relies on CRAF for much of its steady-state and wartime surge requirements, it is important for these civilian enablers to stay financially healthy in what has become ... |
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| Synthesis of Systemic Functional Theory & Dynamical Systems Theory for Socio-Cultural Modeling |
07 May 2012 |
45 pages |
| Authors:
Kay O'Halloran; NATIONAL UNIV OF SINGAPORE
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| This project has shown conclusively that mathematical modeling of complex data structures arising multimodal analysis of multimedia texts has potential for describing, identifying interpreting and forecasting socio-cultural patterns trends and instabilities through the identification of semantic patterns which are specific to different people, texts and situational contexts. The complex data structures are derived systemic functional theory (SFT) where linguistic, visual and audio resources are conceptualized as integrated systems of meaning. ... |
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| An Aerospace and Defense Industry Market Index for 1950-2012 and the Connection With Defense Spending |
30 Apr 2012 |
39 pages |
| Authors:
Robert B Williamson; TENNESSEE UNIV KNOXVILLE INST OF NATIONAL DEFENSE BUSINESS
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| The U.S. aerospace and defense industry (ADI) is largely dependent on its U.S. government defense customer. Because of the vital yet specialized nature of that market, the health of the ADI should be assessed periodically to enable government and industry leaders to understand clearly how and to what extent changes to its capacities and capabilities can be forecast and incorporated in their policy deliberations for better decisions. It is widely ... |
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| The Global Ocean Forecast System, Version 3.0 (GOFS 3.0) or the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) |
10 Apr 2012 |
63 pages |
| Authors:
Frank L Bub; NAVAL OCEANOGRAPHIC OFFICE STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS
|
| This Operational Test (OPTEST) for the Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) demonstrates that the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM, GOFS 3.0) is slightly more skilled than the Global Navy Coastal Ocean Model (GNCOM, GOFS 2.6) that it is to replace. Skill, however, is not the most important reason to move to HYCOM as it represents a new basis for global prediction. There are a number of important technical and scientific ... |
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| Images of Bottomside Irregularities Observed at Topside Altitudes (Postprint) |
04 Apr 2012 |
16 pages |
| Authors:
William J Burke; Louise C Gentile; Shannon R Shomo; Patrick A Roddy; Robert F Pfaff; AIR FORCE RESEARCH LAB KIRTLAND AFB NM SPACE VEHICLES DIRECTORATE
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| We analyzed plasma and field measurements acquired by the Communication/ Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite during an eight-hour period on 13 14 January 2010 when strong to moderate 250 MHz scintillation activity was observed at nearby Scintillation Network Decision Aid (SCINDA) ground stations. C/NOFS consistently detected relatively small-scale density and electric field irregularities embedded within large-scale (_100 km) structures at topside altitudes. Significant spectral power measured at the Fresnel ... |
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| Forecasting F10.7 with Solar Magnetic Flux Transport Modeling (Postprint) |
03 Apr 2012 |
14 pages |
| Authors:
C J Henney; W A Toussaint; S M White; C N Arge; AIR FORCE RESEARCH LAB KIRTLAND AFB NM SPACE VEHICLES DIRECTORATE
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| A new method is presented here to forecast the solar 10.7 cm (2.8 GHz) radio flux, abbreviated F10.7, utilizing advanced predictions of the global solar magnetic field generated by a flux transport model. Using indices derived from the absolute value of the solar magnetic field, we find good correlation between the observed photospheric magnetic activity and the observed F10.7 values. Comparing magnetogram data observed within 6 hours of the F10.7 ... |
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| Global Ocean Forecast System V3.0 Validation Test Report Addendum: Provision of Boundary Conditions to the Relocatable Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) |
21 Mar 2012 |
55 pages |
| Authors:
E Metzger; P G Thoppil; G Peggion; D S Franklin; O M Smedstad; NAVAL RESEARCH LAB STENNIS DETACHMENT STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS OCEANOGRAPHY DIV
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| One of the primary functions of the Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) Version 3.0 (V3.0) (consisting of the 1/12 deg global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) that employs the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA)) is to provide boundary conditions (BCs) to higher horizontal and vertical resolution regional nested ocean models, such as the Relocatable (Relo) Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). This document can be viewed as both a User?s ... |
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| Preventing Intelligence Failures in an Unpredictable 21st Century |
20 Mar 2012 |
36 pages |
| Authors:
Darin L Brockington; ARMY WAR COLL CARLISLE BARRACKS PA CENTER FOR STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP
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| Intelligence is a fundamental element of national security; however, history is littered with intelligence failures. Intelligence is about gathering information to inform our decisions and make better choices. Ultimately, intelligence will always be imperfect and, as history demonstrates, surprise can never be completely prevented. Despite intelligence reform legislation enacted on December 17, 2004 to prevent another 9/11, the United States (U.S.) intelligence community (IC) is guaranteed to experience intelligence failure(s) ... |
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| The U.S. Army Religious Support Environment of 2020 |
20 Mar 2012 |
34 pages |
| Authors:
Jeffrey D Houston; ARMY WAR COLL CARLISLE BARRACKS PA
|
| The U.S. Army and the Army Chaplain Corps will experience transformational change between the years 2012 and 2020. Transformational change will have a significant impact on the future U.S. Army religious support environment. The Chaplain Corps must not allow future religious support to unfold in random fashion. Therefore, chaplain strategic leaders must lead transformational change. Transformational leadership requires the ability to identify significant trends, understand their potential impact, and develop ... |
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| Space Sciences |
07 Mar 2012 |
58 pages |
| Authors:
Cassandra Fesen; AIR FORCE RESEARCH LAB WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH
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| BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF PORTFOLIO: Specifying and forecasting the geospace environment of Earth, extending from the Sun to the Earth s upper atmosphere, for Situational Awareness and for Space Control |
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| Comparision of High Energy Laser Expected Dwell Times and Probability of Kill for Mission Planning Scenarios in Actual and Standard Atmospheres |
Mar 2012 |
131 pages |
| Authors:
Jarred L Burley; AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT
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| The 1976 U.S. standard atmosphere, a 50th percentile climatological profile, a ground observation based profile, and 48, 24, and 12 hour GFS forecast derived profiles are compared to actual sounding data and characterized for meteorological parameter predictive performance. Predictive HEL engagement performance is analyzed through AFIT/CDEs HELTDA for relevant engagement scenarios for multiple wavelengths. Operational optimization is demonstrated utilizing GFS forecast predictions in nearly all cases. Ground observation-based profiles prove ... |
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| Ensemble Forecasting of Coronal Mass Ejections Using the WSA-ENLIL with Coned Model |
Mar 2012 |
191 pages |
| Authors:
II Emmons Daniel J; AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH GRADUATE SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT
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| The combination of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal model, ENLIL heliospherical model version 2.7, and Coned Model version 1.3 (WSA-ENLIL with Coned Model) was employed to form ensemble forecasts for 15 halo coronal mass ejections (CME's). The input parameter distributions were formed from 100 sets of CME cone parameters derived from the Coned Model. The Coned Model employed image processing along with the bootstrap approach to automatically calculate cone parameter distributions ... |
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| A Proposal to Initiate Regional Studies of Ionospheric Irregularities in the African Region |
Mar 2012 |
14 pages |
| Authors:
Sandro M Radicella; ABDUS SALAM INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR THEORETICAL PHYSICS TRIESTE (ITALY)
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| It is well known that unique world-wide studies of ionospheric behavior have been made possible with GPS dual-frequency receivers that are designed to measure total electron content and to detect ionospheric irregularities. Unfortunately, the ionosphere over Africa has remained a mystery due to the sparse distribution of ionospheric sensors over this vast continent. Particularly, satellite observations have shown significant differences in the morphology of ionospheric irregularities over the low latitude ... |
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| Development of a Markov Model for Forecasting Continuation Rates for Enlisted Prior Service and Non-Prior Service Personnel in the Selective Marine Corps Reserve (SMCR) |
Mar 2012 |
65 pages |
| Authors:
Jr Erhardt Bruce J; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC POLICY
|
| The purpose of this thesis is to develop a Markov model to determine the continuation rates for Prior Service and Non-Prior Service enlisted populations in the Selected Marine Corps Reserve (SMCR). Determining the end-strength for these populations is necessary for reserve manpower planners to balance the force structure to minimize personnel overages or underages that would impact training and labor costs as well as career progression. The results of model ... |
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| The Potential Observation Network Design with Mesoscale Ensemble Sensitivities in Complex Terrain |
Mar 2012 |
103 pages |
| Authors:
Kenneth H Chilcoat; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| Observation network design requires some framework for sensitivity studies. The goal is to place observations where they will reduce forecast error the most. We use uncertainty estimates from our best forecast models as an indicator of forecast error. The first step is then to find initial-state perturbations that reduce forecast uncertainty by minimizing a user-dependent norm. Adjoint models have helped meet this challenge for decades. More recently, ensemble sensitivities have ... |
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| Cloud Climatologies for Rocket Triggered Lightning from Launches at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center |
Mar 2012 |
159 pages |
| Authors:
Greg J Strong; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| We have conducted a study on the development of detailed climatological probabilities of violating cloud related Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) used by Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center (CCAFS and KSC). This study was conducted to provide the 45th Weather Squadron with improved capabilities for operational forecasting for launches from CCAFS and KSC. Our focus was on developing methods to produce climatological probabilities of violating one ... |
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| Evaluation of Non-convective Wind Forecasting Methods in the 15th Operational Weather Squadron Area of Responsibility |
Mar 2012 |
129 pages |
| Authors:
Christopher S Wireman; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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| Predicting critical wind thresholds for non-convective wind events is a challenge for today's operational forecasters. This study evaluates two different methods to forecasting non-convective wind gusts of 35 knots at five locations within the 15th Operational Weather Squadron's area of responsibility. In 2001, Olivier Brasseur developed the Wind Gust Estimate (WGE) as a physically based representation of the boundary layer parameters required to produce gusts at the surface. Previous research ... |
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| Forecasting the Marine Corps' Enlisted Classification Plan: Assessment of An Alternative Model |
Mar 2012 |
69 pages |
| Authors:
Erik P Hovey; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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| In a given fiscal year, the United States Marine Corps accesses approximately 30,000 enlisted personnel into its ranks. This labor supply of recruits is classified into various Military Occupational Specialties (MOSs) according to the forecasted requirement for new personnel into a particular MOS. The Classification Plan is the primary initial training input into the Training Input Plan, which allocates all training resources for Training and Education Command. The current Classification ... |
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| A Coupled Model System for Southeast Florida: Wave Model Validation Using Radar and In Situ Observations |
24 Feb 2012 |
45 pages |
| Authors:
Uriah M Gravois; W E Rogers; Tommy G Jensen; NAVAL RESEARCH LAB STENNIS DETACHMENT STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS OCEANOGRAPHY DIV
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| This document describes the wave model validation efforts for a Florida Straits test case for the fully coupled Coastal Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) model during spring of 2005. The main focus of this work is validation of the waves portion of the COAMPS model; however, brief point analysis of winds and tides are also included. The ground truth for waves validation includes in situ data (ADCP and buoy) and ... |
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Reports by Keyword(s)
FORECASTING
