RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Modeling Planning as an Incremental, Opportunistic Process.

JUN 1979

Authors: Barbara Hayes-Roth; Frederick Hayes-Roth; Stanley J. Rosenchein; Stephanie Cammarata; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

The full text of this report is not available and therefore is not for sale. This information is provided for reference purposes only.

Planning is the process of formulating an intended course of action. In this paper we present a model of planning and describe the current version of an INTERLISP simulation of the model. We also review psychological results which confirm the model's basic assumptions for human planning behavior. (Author)

A New Approach to Defense Industrial Planning: Briefing Documentation.

MAY 1979

Authors: Geneese G. Baumbusch; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Documents a briefing on policy implications of recent Rand research on defense industrial surge capability. The briefing suggests that a methodology for assessing defense industrial surge capability should be based on good demand analysis, should provide a methodology for obtaining an overview of the industrial activity necessary for defense production, and should have a mechanism for gathering detailed information from potential problem industries. Such methodology was tested in the Rand ...

Overview of the Air-Ground Actions Two-Sided Engagement (AGATE) Simulation Model.

APR 1979

Authors: Jack Raymond Lind; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

AGATE is a dynamic, two-sided, expected-value, combat-interaction model of ground battle, including air attacks on ground targets and counterair defenses by ground forces. It is designed to measure the impact of (a) weapon system characteristics, (b) organizational structure, (c) doctrine and tactics, and (d) terrain and environment on the outcome of battles. The tanks, armored personnel carriers (APCs), artillery, air, and counterair systems that make up the combined arms team, ...

An Introduction to the ISIS Interactive Information System.

APR 1979

Authors: Herbert J. Shukiar; Charles H. Bush; Robert C. Gammill; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

This report describes in a tutorial manner ISIS, an interactive data base management system developed on the PDP11 computer under the UNIX timesharing system. ISIS, designed for computer-naive users, uses an English-like command language to give the use the ability to view, modify, and otherwise reorganize his data base. ISIS operates on data bases of modest size, exploiting the unique characteristics associated with such data bases. The tutorial focus is ...

MANPOWER: A Model of Tactical Aircraft Maintenance Personnel Requirements. Volume II. Technical Appendixes.

APR 1979

Authors: W. S. Furry; K. M. Bloomberg; J. Lu; C. Roach; J. F. Schank; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

This report describes MANPOWER, a computer model for predicting the total force base-level maintenance personnel requirements of prospective aircraft in the USAF Tactical Air Command. The model is designed to be used early in the acquisition process when it is desirable to understand the probable total maintenance personnel requirements of proposed weapon systems. MANPOWER requires inputs concerning mission types, sortie rates, sortie lengths, deployment patterns, squadron size, peacetime base sizes, ...

MANPOWER: A Model of Tactical Aircraft Maintenance Personnel Requirements. Volume I. Overview of Model Development and Application.

APR 1979

Authors: W. S. Furry; K. M. Bloomberg; J. Lu; C. D. Roach; J. F. Schank; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Specialty Training and The Performance of First-Term Enlisted Personnel.

APR 1979

Authors: R. M. Gay; M. J. Albrecht; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

This report describes some early results of research designed to evaluate the economic efficiency of specialty training for first-term enlisted personnel. To make such an evaluation, one must develop reliable measures of on-the-job performance that (a) reflect net rather that gross productivity, (b) reflect productivity over time, and (c) are based on the performance of specific individuals. Measures that have these properties can be collected by a variety of methods, ...

The Significance of Divergent U.S.-USSR Military Expenditure.

FEB 1979

Authors: Arthur J. Alexander; Abraham S. Becker; William E. Hoehn Jr; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Due to steady increases in Soviet military expenditure over 15 years, plus sharp decreases in U.S. outlays in the first part of the 1970s, the size of Soviet military programs has exceeded that of U.S. programs for several years. The margin has been widening and is forecast to persist. The disparity in many mission outlay areas is impressively large: a three-to-one advantage to the Soviet Union in Strategic Forces; about ...

Design Considerations for Computer-Based Interactive Map Display Systems.

FEB 1979

Authors: Robert H. Anderson; Norman Z. Shapiro; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

A discussion of the key features of an interactive map display system that affect both the usefulness of the system and the design and architecture of its hardware and software. Recent developments in computer graphics offer the possibility of creating interactive map display systems having many of the advantages of traditional paper maps, but significant additional advantages as well. This report presents observations and guidelines for developers of interactive map ...

Reality and Belief in Military Affairs: A First Draft (June 1977).

FEB 1979

Authors: Herbert Goldhamer; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

This report consists of three unfinished chapters of a book the author was writing at the time of his death in 1977. The discrepancies between reality and belief in military affairs which have had decisive consequences on events throughout man's recorded history--although often observed and commented upon by military analysts and historians--are here for the first time made the focus of inquiry. Drawing on past and present writings of East ...

The Terrain Intervisibility and Movement Evaluation Routine (TIMER) Model.

JAN 1979

Authors: L. H. Wegner; M. G. Weiner; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

This report is one of a series of three produced by a Rand study of the relationships between the tactical employment and the technological capabilities of advanced weapons for ground combat. The TIMER model was developed to determine the effects of terrain on target visibility during combat engagements. TIMER supplies data on the occurence and duration of target visibility from defense positions, the maximum range at which target acquisition might ...

Interactions Between Tactics and Technology in Ground Warfare.

JAN 1979

Authors: E. W. Paxson; M. G. Weiner; R. A. Wise; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Discusses tactical-technological interactions observed during a study of advanced employment concepts for ground force operations. The study involved a direct-fire system--a portable weapon resembling a bazooka that fires a laser beam-rider missile--and two indirect-fire systems, one a precision guided mortar system, the other a precision guided missile. The authors present observations and speculations about the future ground combat operations in Europe, on the basis of which they urge a more ...

Cognitive Processes in Planning.

DEC 1978

Authors: Barbara Hayes-Roth; Frederick Hayes-Roth; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

We propose a model of the planning process. Planning is the predetermination of a course of action aimed at achieving a goal. The model assumes that planning comprises the activities of a variety of cognitive 'specialists.' Each specialist can suggest certain kinds of decisions for incorporation into the plan in progress. These include decisions about: (a) how to approach the planning problem; (b) what knowledge bears on the problem; (c) ...

The Fall of South Vietnam: Statements by Vietnamese Military and Civilian Leaders.

DEC 1978

Authors: Stephen T. Hosmer; Konrad Kellen; Brian M. Jenkins; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

This report summarizes extensive oral and written statements by 27 former high-ranking South Vietnamese military officers and civilians on their perceptions of the causes of the collapse of South Vietnam in 1975. The causes cited were many and interwoven--shortcomings in South Vietnam's political and military leadership, planning, and organization--but all were tied to what the interviewees saw as the overarching cause for the collapse: the American role in Vietnam. They ...

A Method for Evaluating Advanced Systems and Concepts for Ground Combat.

NOV 1978

Authors: E. Paxson; M. Weiner; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

This report presents a method for illuminating the interrelationships between a proposed advanced ground combat system's technological characteristics and its tactical employment. The method uses a three-dimensional 'terrain table a computer program for determining whether and for how long a line of sight exists between a sensor and a target, and a series of analytic modules developed for a hand calculator to determine the outcomes of engagements. To illustrate the ...

The Economic Potential of the Arab Countries.

NOV 1978

Authors: Arthur Smithies; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Projects and compares the domestic economic development of seven Arab countries to 1985 on alternative assumptions of 2 and 5 percent increases in oil export revenues. All seven countries should grow rapidly if the oil-rich subsidize the oil-poor, but not as rapidly as they hope. Relative disparities will remain and occasionally increase. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait will carry the military expenditure burden. Foreign asset accumulation will continue, but decline and ...

A Preliminary Analysis of the Increase in the Average Grade of General Schedule Federal Employees.

NOV 1978

Authors: James H. Hayes; Geraldine A. Walter; Sharon K. Matyskiela; Elo R. Kabe; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

'Grade creep' is a term that describes the symptom but not the cause of a complex problem. Grade creep had run its course in DoD by the end of 1969 or early 1970 when salary comparability for general schedule (GS) employees had been achieved. The same conclusion is largely true for all of government. The causes of the grade increase before salary comparability were varied, and it appears the process ...

An Appraisal of Models Used in Life Cycle Cost Estimation for USAF Aircraft Systems.

OCT 1978

Authors: Kenneth E. Marks; H. Garrison Massey; Brent D. Bradley; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Although life cycle analysis is widely used as a management tool, considerable uncertainty still exists about its effectiveness with respect to economic tradeoffs, funding decisions, and resource allocations. This report evaluates some of the most widely used life cycle cost (LCC) models: AFR 173-10 models (BACE AND CACE); the Logistics Support Cost Model; the Logistics Composite model; the MOD-METRIC model; AFM 26-3 Manpower Standards; Air Force Logistics Command Depot Maintenance ...

Defense Industrial Planning for a Surge in Military Demand,

SEP 1978

Authors: Geneese G. Baumbusch; Patricia D. Fleischauer; Alvin J. Harman; Michael D. Miller; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

In the wake of post-Vietnam reductions in expenditures for military hardware, a concern arose that these reductions, together with certain supposedly perverse characteristics of defense business (such as purportedly low profitability) were eroding the lower tiers of the defense industrial base. As a consequence, DoD buyers were said to be having trouble getting adequate supplies of some products, to be paying monopoly prices for others, and to be in a ...

Measuring Industrial Adequacy for a Surge in Military Demand: An Input-Output Approach,

SEP 1978

Authors: Michael Douglas Miller; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

The research described in this report is part of a larger study of the capabilities of the lower tiers of the defense industrial base. Part of this study--dealing with the adequacy of industry for the peacetime needs of the Department of Defense--has already been completed. The study was extended to include an evaluation of industrial capability under conditions of a surge in military demand. This report describes the methodological underpinnings ...

The Evolution of Military Officer Personnel Management Policies: A Preliminary Study with Parallels from Industry.

AUG 1978

Authors: James H. Hayes; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

This study provides perspective on the debate over personnel and compensation policies by documenting the evolution of military officer personnel management policies from Colonial times to the present. Emphasis is placed on the provision of the required number of properly trained officers during both war and peace. The historical development of a managerial class in industry is also examined, partially because personnel practices of business firms have been held up ...

The Evolution of Military Officer Personnel Management Policies: A Preliminary Study with Parallels from Industry. Executive Summary.

AUG 1978

Authors: James H. Hayes; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

The discussion in the main study is arranged by historical period, whereas this executive summary is organized around personnel management problems as they have emerged both for the military officer and the manager in industry during the history of the United States. (Author)

Cognitive Processes in Planning.

AUG 1978

Authors: Barbara Hayes-Roth; Frederick Hayes-Roth; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Forecasting Processing Requirements of Standard USAF Base Level Computer Systems.

JUL 1978

Authors: Eugene C. Poggio; Naomi Ainslie; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

This system, develops a methodology for forecasting computer requirements to support functional systems that are operational at the time of forecasting. The approach is to develop regression models that can relate past base characteristics to past computer requirements, so that one can then employ estimates of future base characteristics, as obtained from planning documents, to predict future workload. Although originally developed within the context of the Burroughs 3500, the methodology ...

Sino-Soviet Conflict in the 1970s: Its Evolution and Implications for the Strategic Triangle.

JUL 1978

Authors: Kenneth G. Lieberthal; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Analyzes the evolution of Sino-Soviet relations since the Cultural Revolution and explains China's policies in terms of political struggles which racked Peking during the 1970s. Key questions are explored: What bilateral strategies have the Soviet Union and China adopted to deal with each other since 1969. How has the Moscow-Peking feud affected dealings with other states. How have Sino-Soviet relations intertwined with domestic politics in China. What changes in relations ...

Probability That the Propagation of an Undetected Fatigue Crack Will Not Cause a Structural Failure.

JUN 1978

Authors: J. R. Gebman; P. C. Paris; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

The undetected propagation of a fatigue crack constitutes a significant cause of aircraft and other structural failures. To raise the structural failure load to a relatively high level, the manufacturer can divide the structure into many small elements, which significantly increases the ability of a structure to tolerate an element failure. This report presents a procedure for calculating the probability that the element has not failed, as a function of ...

International Terrorism: Trends and Potentialities,

MAY 1978

Authors: Brian M. Jenkins ; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Pulsed-Power Research and Development in the USSR.

MAY 1978

Authors: Simon Kassel; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Part of a continuing study of Soviet R and D of high-current, high-energy charged-particle beams and their scientific and technological applications, this report discusses pulsed-power devices and elements, the basic means of energy delivery to all charged-particle beam systems. Specifically, it treats pulsed-power generation, storage, and switching. Soviet technical literature since 1960 was examined for data detailing both the organization and planning of Soviet pulsed-power R and D and the ...

The Feasibility of Employing Frequencies Between 20 and 300 GHz for Earth-Satellite Communications Links.

MAY 1978

Authors: L. Mundie; N. Feldman; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

This report develops a model for estimating in a new way the statistical distributions of signal attenuation, sky noise temperature, and total atmospheric-induced degradation in millimeter-wave link performance resulting from the presence of humidity, clouds, and rain in the atmosphere. The statistical distribution of system outages is then found for certain hypothetical communications links using six frequencies and four elevation angles. To illustrate the compatibility of the communications equipment with ...

MODIA: Volume 3. Operation and Design of the User Interface - Appendix.

APR 1978

Authors: Polly Carpenter-Huffman; Misako Fujisaki; Ray Pyles; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

A description of the User Interface (UI) program of MODIA (a Method of Designing Instructional Alternatives) is presented for readers responsible for maintaining, modifying, or transporting that program to another computer system. It is technical in content, and we assume that the reader is familiar with program operation as described in the text of this report.

Decentralization of Government Agencies: What Does it Accomplish,

APR 1978

Authors: Robert K. Yin; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Hand Calculator Programs for Staff Officers.

APR 1978

Authors: E. W. Paxson; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Provides 23 programs written for the Hewlett-Packard HP-67/97 programmable calculators. Full documentation is given to clarify the background of topics and to enable the user to program a subject of special interest for a machine other than the HP-67 but with comparable power. Several programs reduce published volumes of tables to one or two magnetic cards. The programs are grouped under the headings of geographic and orbital programs, military models, ...

A Method for Evaluating Diagnostic Aid Systems in Army Land Vehicle Maintenance.

APR 1978

Authors: Gary F. Mills; Kathleen A. Wolf; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

This report discusses Army land vehicle maintenance data and data collection efforts, and describes the development of a general method for evaluating diagnostic aid systems. Differences among data sources are illustrated by a comparison of maintenance data for the 1/4 ton truck. The evaluation method is based on two assumptions: first, that current vehicle operating and maintenance practices embody a number of problems that cause maintenance costs to be ...

Contemporary Russian Nationalist Responses to Non-Russians in the USSR,

MAR 1978

Authors: S. Enders Wimbush; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Geriometry: A Cumulative Stress/Damage Measurement of Useful Life of Mechanical Systems,

MAR 1978

Authors: Richard G. Salter; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

It has long been understood in the equipment design and development shops of industry, that the useful life of mechanical systems is consumed by an accumulation of damage due to the broad range of stresses to which the system is subjected. Heretofore, measuring the cumulative damage as a means of assessing the remaining life has been impractical, particularly for mobile systems. The advent of microcomputers now makes it possible to ...

The Value of Screening Trials,

MAR 1978

Authors: Emmett B. Keeler; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

In summary, screening trials provide information on cancer treatment which is otherwise practically impossible to obtain. This information provides additional justification for expanding current support of such trials.

The Youngest Minority: Are They Competent to Waive Their Constitutional Rights,

MAR 1978

Authors: Saundra Brewer; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Regulating Commercial Telephone Solicitations,

MAR 1978

Authors: Walter S. Baer; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Limiting Factors in Tactical Target Acquisition,

MAR 1978

Authors: H. W. Wessely; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

More on Insurance and Catastrophic Events: Can We Expect De Facto Limits on Liability Recoveries,

MAR 1978

Authors: Kenneth A. Solomon; Chris Whipple; David Okrent; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Does Brewer versus Williams End Police Interrogation,

MAR 1978

Authors: Saundra T. Brewer; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Estimated Costs of Extended Low-Rate Airframe Production.

MAR 1978

Authors: David J. Dreyfuss; Joseph P. Large; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Achieving a high rate of production as quickly as possible has traditionally been viewed as the most effective way of satisfying time-urgent inventory requirements while keeping production costs low. One common consequence has been the delivery of less than fully qualified production articles. This report discusses the cost of extending initial low-rate production while tests of early production articles continue. The relatively small resultant cost increases can potentially be offset ...

The Combined Effects of Pressure Gradient and Heating on the Stability and Transition of Boundary Layers in Water.

MAR 1978

Authors: A. R. Wazzan; Carl Gazley Jr; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Appreciable drag reduction is possible if extended regions of laminar flow can be maintained. Although a variety of techniques for boundary-layer control have been explored, only recently has the powerful effect of heat transfer on the stability and transition of water boundary layers been realized. This report presents computational results for the stability and predicted transition characteristics of water boundary-layer 'wedge' flows for various combinations of pressure gradient and heat ...

The Airborne Forward Air Controller: Past Accomplishments and Future Opportunities,

FEB 1978

Authors: John W. Ellis Jr; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

How to Think about Soviet Military Doctrine,

FEB 1978

Authors: Benjamin S. Lambeth; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Interactive Classroom Television Systems: Educational Impact on Partially Sighted Students,

FEB 1978

Authors: T. K. Bikson; T. H. Bikson; S. M. Genensky; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

An Interactive Classroom Television System (ICTS) is a way of creating a visual classroom environment for partially sighted students by making use of the magnification brightness and contrast capabilities of television cameras and monitors. More precisely, an ICTS is a multicamera, multimonitor closed circuit TV system with videotaping and videoreplay capacity. Such a system permits teachers and their partially sighted students to be in continuous two way visual communication with ...

Local Labor Markets and Cyclic Components in Demand for College Trained Manpower.

FEB 1978

Authors: James P. Smith; Finis R. Welch; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Military Manpower and the All-Volunteer Force--Testimony Before the House Armed Services Committee (Subcommittee on Military Personnel): February 15, 1978,

FEB 1978

Authors: Richard V. L. Cooper; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Computers and Information Flow,

FEB 1978

Authors: R. L. Patrick; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Rule-Directed Interactive Transaction Agents: An Approach to Knowledge Acquisition.

FEB 1978

Authors: Donald Arthur Waterman; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

A description of computer programs, called user agents, that can perform various tasks for the user. Interacting with users, these agents can learn facts and store them in a data base or learn data-manipulation procedures and represent them as programs. The agents are written in RITA, the Rule-directed Interactive Transaction Agent system, and are organized as sets of IF-THEN rules. Four types of RITA agents are described: (1) an exemplary ...