| Assessment of the Operational Requirements for the Transformable Craft in Seabasing Missions |
Jun 2010 |
119 pages |
| Authors:
Sebastian Scheibe; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
 | In 2005, the Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) #05-020 called for research and development efforts to design the Transformable Craft (T-Craft), a transport craft that will create a game-changing capability for the U.S. Navy's Seabasing concept. The T-Craft is intended to advance the concepts of Operational Maneuver from the Sea (OMFTS) and Ship-to-Objective Maneuver (STOM). In this thesis, we examine various T-Craft operational and performance requirements using discrete event simulation modeling, ... |
|
| Modeling Stakeholder Decision Logic: A Case Study of Lebanese Hezbollah |
Jun 2010 |
179 pages |
| Authors:
Ronald A Garrick; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| This thesis develops a methodology to analyze stakeholder decision logic in dynamic, multi-agent political systems. The focus of the research is Lebanese Hezbollah decision making in a political system that includes Iran, Syria, Israel, and the United States. A thorough historical review of the Middle East provides the foundation for accurate descriptions of each stakeholder's interests and feasible actions. Additionally, the historical review provides the basis for specifying model relationships ... |
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| A Review of the Safety Climate Literature as it Relates to Naval Aviation |
Mar 2010 |
47 pages |
| Authors:
Angela O'Dea; Paul O'Connor; Quinn Kenedy; Samual L Buttrey; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| The purpose of this literature review is to provide the background to an evaluation of the utility of the Command Safety Assessment Survey (CSAS) as a valid predictor of future mishaps. The end goal is to be able to use the survey to identify at risk U.S. Naval squadrons prior to the occurrence of mishaps. Safety climate describes employees' perceptions, attitudes, and beliefs about risk and safety (Mearns & Flin, ... |
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| Navy Officer Manpower Optimization Revisited |
Mar 2010 |
98 pages |
| Authors:
Michael G Wheeler; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| This work develops and tests RCMOP-2, an extension of the Requirements-Driven, Cost-Based, Manpower Optimization (RCMOP) model introduced by Clark. Like its predecessor, RCMOP-2 simultaneously guides monthly values for U.S. Navy officer manpower variables, including inventory, promotions, accessions, designator transfers, and forced and natural losses, to minimize a gap index reflecting the lack of fit between a given personnel inventory and a set of billet requirements. RCMOP-2 enhances RCMOP with added ... |
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| Heuristics in Global Combat Logistics Force Operational Planning |
Mar 2010 |
74 pages |
| Authors:
Andres Diaz; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| The United States Navy (USN) globally deploys to protect and sustain a peaceful international system of interdependent trade, information, and social networks through a spectrum of capabilities, including humanitarian aid missions, multinational engagement, maritime domain awareness, and combat operations. To sustain maritime forces at sea, the Combat Logistics Force (CLF) provides logistical support via Underway Replenishments (UNREP) that maximizes deployed battle group on-station-time and endurance. The author presents a heuristic ... |
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| Effects of Sleep on Training Effectiveness in Soldiers at Fort Leonard Wood |
FEB 2010 |
74 pages |
| Authors:
Nita L. Miller; Lawrence G. Shattuck; Anthony P. Tvaryanas; Panagiotis Matsangas; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| This study assessed where adjusting scheduled sleep periods to better complement biologically driven sleep patterns would improve sleep and performance in Army recruits in basic combat training (BCT). A total of 394 recruits and instructor cadre, 185 in a training company using the standard BCT sleep regimen and 209 in a company using an optimized sleep regimen, were followed throughout BCT using a variety of psycho-physiological measures. A random sample ... |
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| Random Meetings at Sea |
Jan 2010 |
34 pages |
| Authors:
Alan R Washburn; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| As ownship moves through a sea of targets moving at constant velocity in random directions, it will occasionally meet some of them when the intervening distance becomes sufficiently small. The very fact of meeting is significant in estimating the properties of a met target. We derive joint distributions for the properties of met targets, and show how to sample those properties in Monte Carlo simulations. We also introduce 'instant' target ... |
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| On Solving Large-Scale Finite Minimax Problems using Exponential Smoothing |
Jan 2010 |
37 pages |
| Authors:
E Y Pee; J O Royset; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| This paper focuses on finite minimax problems with many functions, and their solutions by means of exponential smoothing. We conduct run-time complexity and rate of convergence analysis of smoothing algorithms and compare them with those of SQP algorithms. We find that smoothing algorithms may have only sublinear rate of convergence, but as shown by our complexity results, their slow rate of convergence may be compensated by small computational work per ... |
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| Longitudinal Study of Sleep Patterns of United States Military Academy Cadets |
Jan 2010 |
10 pages |
| Authors:
Nita L Miller; Lawrence G Shattuck; Panagiotis Matsangas; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| The study provided an opportunity to observe sleep patterns in a college-age population attending the United States Military Academy. This 4-year longitudinal study investigated sleep patterns of cadets. A stratified sample of 80 cadets had sleep patterns monitored using actigraphy for 8 months: one month in both fall and spring academic semesters over a 4-year period. Data were collected at the United States Military Academy, West Point, NY. Participants were ... |
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| Optimizing Schedules for Maritime Humanitarian Cooperative Engagements from a United States Navy Sea Base |
Jan 2010 |
17 pages |
| Authors:
Javier Salmeron; Jeffrey Kline; Greta S Densham; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| This paper introduces Global Fleet Station Mission Planner (GFSMP), an optimization tool to aid in mission planning and the scheduling of humanitarian assistance missions for the U.S. Navy. GFSMP helps fleet staffs to examine how one naval ship, which was deployed for an extended period (e.g., six months) with embarked teams, can best provide humanitarian assistance. We illustrate the application of GFSMP using notional data from the fall 2007 Gulf ... |
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| On Sample Size Control in Sample Average Approximations for Solving Smooth Stochastic Programs |
21 Dec 2009 |
29 pages |
| Authors:
Johannes O Royset; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| We consider smooth stochastic programs and develop a discrete-time optimal-control problem for adaptively selecting sample sizes in a class of algorithms based on sample average approximations (SAA). The control problem aims to minimize the expected computational cost to obtain a near-optimal solution of a stochastic program and is solved approximately using dynamic programming. The optimal-control problem depends on unknown parameters such as rate of convergence, computational cost per iteration, and ... |
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| Optimality Functions in Stochastic Programming |
02 Dec 2009 |
31 pages |
| Authors:
J O Royset; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| Optimality functions in nonlinear programming conveniently measure, in some sense, the distance between a candidate solution and a stationary point. They may also provide guidance towards the development of implementable algorithms. In this paper, we use an optimality function to construct procedures for validation analysis in stochastic programs with nonlinear, possibly nonconvex, expected value functions as both objective and constraint functions. We construct an estimator of the optimality function and ... |
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| A Comparative Analysis Between the Navy Standard Workweek and the Actual Work/Rest Patterns of Sailors Aboard U.S. Navy Frigates |
Dec 2009 |
118 pages |
| Authors:
Kim Y Green; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| Crew fatigue is a major factor in mishaps aboard ships. Despite empirical evidence that fewer personnel and longer working hours are primary factors of crew fatigue, U.S. Navy budgeting constraints and increased automation on ships has resulted in reduced manning onboard Navy vessels. This study expands research by Haynes (2007) and Mason (2009) comparing the Navy Standard Workweek (NSWW) Model to Sailors' self-reported activities onboard U.S. Navy destroyers and cruisers. ... |
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| Sensor-Interceptor Operational Policy Optimization for Maritime Interdiction Missions |
Dec 2009 |
88 pages |
| Authors:
Nir Rozen; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| Maritime Interdiction Missions (MIM) are of great interest and high operational importance to the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Coast Guard, and allied forces. The MIM scenario discussed in this thesis includes an area of interest with multiple neutral and hostile vessels moving through this area, and an interdiction force consisting of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and an intercepting vessel, whose objectives are to search, identify, and intercept hostile vessels ... |
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| Route Optimization for Multiple Searchers |
04 Sep 2009 |
43 pages |
| Authors:
J O Royset; H Sato; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| We consider a discrete time-and-space route-optimization problem, across a finite time horizon, in which multiple searchers seek to detect one or more probabilistically moving targets. The paper formulates a novel convex mixed-integer nonlinear program for this problem that generalizes earlier models to situations with multiple targets, searcher deconfliction, and target- and location-dependent search effectiveness. We present two solution approaches, one based on the cutting-plane method and the other on linearization. ... |
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| Analysis of Change in Population Stance on Infrastructure Using a Cultural Geography Model for Stability Operations |
Sep-2009 |
72 pages |
| Authors:
Edward M Valdez; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| Operations in counterinsurgency (COIN) and stability, security, transition, and reconstruction (SSTR) require a cultural understanding of the population in which they are conducted. TRAC Monterey has embarked on the development of a stochastic, discrete-event simulation model called the Cultural Geography (CG) model, intended to aid the decision maker in understanding the effects of his actions on the local population. The simulation model incorporates theories in social science, along with data ... |
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| A Cost Estimation Analysis of U.S. Navy Ship Fuel-Savings Techniques and Technologies |
Sep-2009 |
116 pages |
| Authors:
Samuel V Fonte; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| The U.S. Department of Defense and Navy are placing a greater emphasis in energy efficiency. Though the surface fleet comprises only a small percentage of petroleum usage, seemingly small efficiencies gained could yield substantial fuel savings. This thesis follows a process of researching and collecting fuel-saving ideas, developing a method to estimate savings, subjecting calculations to sensitivity analyses by discount factor and cost of fuel, and creating prioritization listings of ... |
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| Tri-Level Optimization of Critical Infrastructure Resilience |
Sep-2009 |
70 pages |
| Authors:
John P Babick; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| We introduce a new way to perform network analysis on critical infrastructure that is superior to Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP), currently used by the Department of Homeland Security. We introduce the idea of a Design-Attack-Defend (DAD) model that determines the optimal defense plan for a critical infrastructure network within a specified budget constraint. Design-Attack-Defend first determines worst-case attacks and then determines where to defend or ... |
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| Planning the Optimal Transit for a Ship Through a Mapped Minefield |
Sep-2009 |
66 pages |
| Authors:
Pei-Chieh Li; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| This thesis develops (a) a mission-planning tool for a Navy Mine Counter Measure (MCM) force to find a minimum-risk route for a surface ship through a mapped minefield, and (b) a heuristic to identify a sequence of mines whose clearance (removal and/or deactivation) leads to a rapid reduction of the risk of a minimum-risk path. All modeling concepts reflect the requirements of the Republic of China Navy's MCM operations. The ... |
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| Evaluating the Impact of the Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel |
Sep-2009 |
80 pages |
| Authors:
Robert M Corley; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| This thesis motivates and defines the concept of Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel (FBCF), assesses Department of the Navy Major Defense Acquisition Programs potentially impacted by FBCF estimates and applies an experimental methodology developed by OUSD(AT&L) to estimate and analyze the FBCF of a notional capability. Our analysis shows that there are potentially large variations in energy-related costs (burdens) associated with the required fuel delivery assets, the supporting infrastructure and ... |
|
| A Comparative Analysis of Commercial Off-The-Shelf Naval Simulations and Classic Operations Research Models |
Sep-2009 |
120 pages |
| Authors:
Peter A Field; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| No longer does Naval Surface Warfare merely entail battle between symmetric naval fleets conducted in large open water engagements. Today's Surface Warriors must have the training and capability to also fight asymmetric threats in congested locations of strategic value. Operations conducted within straits, choke points, and island cluttered littorals pose considerable risk and numerous challenges for today's Navy. Shore based anti-ship missiles, torpedo and missile carrying small fast patrol boats, ... |
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| Optimizing the Air-to-Ground Kill Chain for Time-Sensitive Targets |
Sep-2009 |
74 pages |
| Authors:
Bradley A Bloye; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| When groups of platforms, sensors, and weapons are able to communicate with each other in real-time, they form a network. Modern warfare increasingly involves network-centric operations, the military strategy that seeks to translate informational advantages gained through the cooperation of all platforms in the network into increased overall mission effectiveness. For this thesis, the Time-to-Kill is our metric to quantify mission effectiveness because a given time-sensitive target is vulnerable to ... |
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| A Manpower Comparison of Three U.S. Navies: The Current Fleet, a Projected 313 Ship Fleet, and a More Distributed Bimodal Alternative |
Sep-2009 |
135 pages |
| Authors:
Juan L Carrasco; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| A study conducted by the faculty at Naval Postgraduate School entitled The New Navy Fighting Machine (NNFM) proposes a new fleet design with 677 ships. The study speculates that the manning would not be greatly different from the present Navy of 280 ships or the planned fleet of 313 ships. The purpose of this thesis is to determine whether the study's conjecture is true, by comparing the manpower requirements of ... |
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| Industry and Public Sector Cooperation for Information Sharing: Ports of the Puget Sound |
Jul 2009 |
47 pages |
| Authors:
Anita Salem; Wendy Walsh; Lyla Englehorn; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| This report presents the findings of the Maritime Information Sharing Taskforce (MIST) research effort for the Washington State Puget Sound ports. Using a participatory design approach, the researchers partnered with federal and commercial stakeholders to assess the information sharing needs of security personnel in this port region. The research design included an issues workshop, field studies of port personnel, and local networking events. The findings indicate the need for increased ... |
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| Optimizing Biosurveillance Systems that Use Threshold-based Event Detection Methods |
01 Jun 2009 |
30 pages |
| Authors:
Fricker; Ronald D Jr; David Banschbach; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| We describe a methodology for optimizing a threshold detection-based biosurveillance system. The goal is to maximize the system-wide probability of detecting an event of interest against a noisy background, subject to a constraint on the expected number of false signals. We use non-linear programming to appropriately set detection thresholds taking into account the probability of an event of interest occurring somewhere in the coverage area. Using this approach, public health ... |
|
| Barrier Games |
Jun 2009 |
38 pages |
| Authors:
Alan R Washburn; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| This report considers barriers that separate one region from another in the sense that an intruder cannot pass from one region to the other without being captured. The barriers are composed of individual units, each of which has a fixed speed and capture radius. The distinguishing feature is that the intruder is assumed to know the configuration of the barrier at all times, and can use this information to select ... |
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| Optimizing Assignment of Tomahawk Cruise Missile Missions to Firing Units |
Jan 2009 |
16 pages |
| Authors:
ALexandra M Newman; Richard E Rosenthal; Javier Salmeron; Gerald G Brown; Wilson Price; Anton Rowe; Charles F Fennemore; Robert L Taft; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| The Tomahawk land-attack cruise missile can be launched from a ship or submarine, and can deliver its warhead precisely to a target at long range. There are several variants of the Tomahawk missile, each with specialized capabilities. For each Tomahawk Missile Sequence Number (MSN) task (i.e., mission), the Tomahawk missile variants can be ranked with respect to their ability and cost effectiveness to perform that task. A given land attack ... |
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| Sleep and Fatigue Issues in Continuous Operations: A Survey of U.S. Army Officers |
2009 |
16 pages |
| Authors:
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| A group of 49 US Army Officers recently returned from combat and attending the Infantry Officers Advanced Course at FT Benning, GA were surveyed to assess the sleep hygiene of their units and to determine the tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) they used to reduce the effects of sleep deprivation in their units. Results indicate that despite Army policy, nearly 80% of the study participants had not received a sleep ... |
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| Optimally Stationing Army Forces |
Dec 2008 |
16 pages |
| Authors:
Robert F Dell; P L Ewing; William J Tarantino; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| There are over one million United States active-duty Army, Army National Guard, and Army Reserve soldiers. The Army assigns each soldier to a unit at one of over 4,000 worldwide locations; these facilities consist of approximately 15 million acres and 287 million square feet. The Army can change a soldier's unit assignment; it can also move a unit's home installation. This paper presents an integer linear program, Optimally Stationing Army ... |
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| When Is Uncertainty About Uncertainty Worth Characterizing? |
Nov 2008 |
5 pages |
| Authors:
Jr Cox Louis A; Gerald G Brown; Stephen M Pollock; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| In areas of risk assessment ranging from terrorism to health, safety, and the environment, authoritative guidance urges risk analysts to quantify and display their uncertainties about inputs that significantly affect the results of an analysis, including their uncertainties about subjective probabilities of events. Such uncertainty characterization is said to be an important part of fully and honestly informing decision makers about the estimates and uncertainties in analyses that support policy ... |
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| Cross-Domain Fault Localization: A Case for a Graph Digest Approach |
01-Oct-2008 |
7 pages |
| Authors:
William D Fischer; Geoffrey G Xie; Joel D Young; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| Prior research has focused on intra-domain fault localization leaving the cross-domain problem largely unaddressed. Faults often have widespread effects, which if correlated, could significantly improve fault localization. Past efforts rely on probing techniques or assume hierarchical domain structures; however, administrators are often unwilling to share network structure and state and domains are organized and connected in complex ways. We present an inference-graph-digest based formulation of the problem. The formulation not ... |
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| Optimization Tradecraft: Hard-Won Insights from Real-World Decision Support |
Sep 2008 |
12 pages |
| Authors:
Gerald G Brown; Richard E Rosenthal; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| Practitioners of optimization-based decision support advise commerce and government on how to coordinate the activities of millions of people who employ assets worth trillions of dollars. The contributions of these practitioners substantially improve planning methods that benefit our security and welfare. The success of real world optimization applications depends on a few trade secrets that are essential, but that rarely, if at all, appear in textbooks. This paper summarizes a ... |
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| Scheduling Policies for an Antiterrorist Surveillance System |
27-Jun-2008 |
32 pages |
| Authors:
Kyle Y Lin; Moshe Kress; Roberto Szechtman; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| This paper concerns scheduling policies in a surveillance system aimed at detecting a terrorist attack in time. Terrorist suspects arriving at a public area are subject to continuous monitoring, while a surveillance team takes their biometric signatures and compare them with records stored in a terrorist database. Because the surveillance team can screen only one terrorist suspect at a time, the team faces a dynamic scheduling problem among the suspects. ... |
|
| Employing Service Oriented Architecture Technologies to Bind a Thousand Ship Navy |
01-Jun-2008 |
21 pages |
| Authors:
Kurt Rothenhaus; James B Michael; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| One of the United States Navy's strategic goals is to foster a "thousand ship" Navy, by combining the U.S. Navy with partners from around the globe. A critical requirement to join various Navies from such diverse backgrounds and technology levels is a simple, flexible, and economical Command and Control (C2) system that each stakeholder can employ and extend. Web-based Service Oriented Architectures (SOA) have potential to provide methods and technologies ... |
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| The Use of Agent-Based Modeling and Data Farming for Planning System of Systems Tests in Joint Environments |
Jun 2008 |
20 pages |
| Authors:
Mary McDonald; Stephen Upton; Gary Horne; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| Agenda: *SEED Center and Philosophy *Data Farming *Support to Joint Test and Evaluation Methodology (JTEM) *Agent Based Modeling *TheTester ABM |
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| Confronting Elusive Insurgents |
07-Apr-2008 |
47 pages |
| Authors:
Edward H Kaplan; Moshe Kress; Roberto Szechtman; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| During counterinsurgency operations, government forces with superior firepower confront weaker low-signature insurgents that exercise elusive yet effective "strike-and-hide" tactics, Under what conditions should government forces attack insurgent strongholds? How should the government allocate its force across different strongholds when the insurgents' threat to the population must be taken into account? How should the government respond to "smart" insurgents who anticipate the government's optimal plan of attack and prepare accordingly? |
|
| A Resurvey of Shift Work-Related Fatigue in MQ-1 Predator Unmanned Aircraft System Crewmembers |
MAR 2008 |
51 pages |
| Authors:
Anthony P. Tvaryanas; William Platte; Caleb Swigart; Jayson Colebank; Nita L. Miller; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| A previous study showed shift working crewmembers in a MQ-1 Predator unmanned aircraft system (UAS) squadron had significantly increased fatigue, emotional exhaustion, and burnout relative to traditional aircrew from another "high-demand, low density" weapon system. This study presents the results of a follow-up survey of this population of UAS crewmembers who were supporting "reachback" teleoperations using a modified rotational shift work schedule. Specifically, shift work-related increases in fatigue, sleepiness, and ... |
|
| Catching the 'Network Science' Bug: Insight and Opportunity for the Operations Researcher |
21-Jan-2008 |
38 pages |
| Authors:
David L Alderson; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| Recent efforts to develop a universal view of complex networks have created both excitement and confusion about the way in which knowledge of network structure can be used to understand, control, or design system behavior. This paper offers perspective on the emerging field of "network science" in three ways. First, it briefly summarizes the origins, methodological approaches, and most celebrated contributions within this increasingly popular field. Second, it contrasts the ... |
|
| Efficient Employment of Non-Reactive Sensors |
07-Jan-2008 |
20 pages |
| Authors:
Moshe Kress; Roberto Szechtman; Jason S Jones; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| We consider two types of non-reactive aerial sensors, which are subject to false-positive and false-negative errors. The sensors search for threat objects such as ballistic missile launchers or improvised explosive devices. The objects are located in a certain area of interest, which is divided into a grid of area-cells. The grid is defined such that each area-cell may contain at most one object. The objective of a sensor is to ... |
|
| Path Optimization for the Resource-Constrained Searcher |
01-Jan-2008 |
49 pages |
| Authors:
H Sato; J O Royset; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| We formulate and solve a discrete-time path-optimization problem where a single searcher, operating in a discretized 3-dimensional airspace, looks for a moving target in a finite set of cells. The searcher is constrained by maximum limits on the consumption of several resources such as time, fuel, and risk along any path. We develop a specialized branch-and-bound algorithm for this problem that utilizes several network reduction procedures as well as a ... |
|
| A New Perspective on Feasibility Determination |
01-Jan-2008 |
9 pages |
| Authors:
Roberto Szechtman; Enver Yucesan; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| We consider the problem of feasibility determination in a stochastic setting. In particular, we wish to determine whether a system belongs to a given set [Gamma] based on a performance measure estimated through Monte Carlo simulation. Our contribution is two-fold: (i) we characterize fractional allocations that are asymptotically optimal; and (ii) we provide an easily implementable algorithm, rooted in stochastic approximation theory, that results in sampling allocations that provably achieve ... |
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| Why Defeating Insurgencies is Hard: The Effect of Intelligence in Counterinsurgency Operations - A Best Case Scenario |
01-Jan-2008 |
18 pages |
| Authors:
Moshe Kress; Roberto Szechtman; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| In insurgency situations, the government organized force is confronted by a small guerrilla group that is dispersed in the general population with no or very small signature. Effective counterinsurgency operations require good intelligence. Absent intelligence, not only might the insurgents escape unharmed and continue their violent actions, but collateral damage caused to the general population from poor targeting may generate adverse response against the government and create popular support for ... |
|
| Interdicting a Nuclear-Weapons Project |
04-Dec-2007 |
37 pages |
| Authors:
Gerald Brown; Matthew Carlyle; Robert Harney; Eric Skroch; Kevin Wood; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| A "proliferator" seeks to complete a first small batch of fission weapons as quickly as possible, while an "interdictor" wishes to delay that completion for as long as possible. We develop and solve a max-min model that identifies resource-limited interdiction actions that maximally delay completion time of the proliferator's weapons project, given that the proliferator will observe any such actions and adjust his plans to minimize that time. The model ... |
|
| Defense and Homeland Security Applications of Multi-Agent Simulations |
Dec 2007 |
13 pages |
| Authors:
Thomas W Lucas; Susan M Sanchez; Felix Martinez; Lisa R Sickinger; Jonathan W Roginski; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| Department of Defense and Homeland Security analysts are increasingly using multi-agent simulation (MAS) to examine national security issues. This paper summarizes three MAS national security studies conducted at the Naval Postgraduate School. The first example explores equipment and employment options for protecting critical infrastructure. The second case considers non-lethal weapons within the spectrum of force-protection options in a martitime environment. The final application investigates emergency (police, fire, and medical) responses ... |
|
| Can Complexity Science Support the Engineering of Critical Network Infrastructures? |
01-Oct-2007 |
9 pages |
| Authors:
David L Alderson; John C Doyle; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| Considerable attention is now being devoted to the study of "complexity science" with the intent of discovering and applying universal laws of highly interconnected and evolved systems. This paper considers several issues related to the use of these theories in the context of critical infrastructures, particularly the Internet. Specifically, we revisit the notion of "organized complexity" and suggest that it is fundamental to our ability to understand, operate, and design ... |
|
| The "Smarter Regression" Add-In for Linear and Logistic Regression in Excel |
JUL 2007 |
17 pages |
| Authors:
Samuel E. Buttrey; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| The widely-used Excel spreadsheet program has a linear regression routine, but it has a number of drawbacks: it does not handle categorical predictors; it requires to the user to generate columns for interactions; it cannot compute logistic regressions; and it is limited to 16 predictor columns. We have developed an Excel add-in that does both logistic and linear regression, handles categorical and interaction variables in an obvious way, and removes ... |
|
| System Availability |
JUL 2007 |
17 pages |
| Authors:
Donald P. Gaver; Patricia A. Jacobs; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
|
| Availability quantifies the propensity of a system to be functionally operative upon demand. It increases if operating times between failures ("up times") are long, and decreases if, following failure or anticipatory removal, logistics delays and repair ("down times") are protracted. This chapter summarizes the general availability concept and discusses the limitation of operational availability suggesting that mission availability is often more useful and appropriate. |
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| Using the Dynamic Model of Situated Cognition to Assess Network Centric Warfare in Field Settings |
JUN 2007 |
44 pages |
| Authors:
Lawrence G. Shattuck; Nita L. Miller; Gregory A. Miller; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
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| Over the past three years, we have presented several papers on a model of data and information flow through a system: the Dynamic Model of Situated Cognition (DMSC). The DMSC has proved useful in a variety of settings: modeling individual performance, military C2, naval operations, human error in military mishaps, team behaviors in complex organizations and, most recently serving as an aid to system designers. Although first proposed as a ... |
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| The Minmax Multidimensional Knapsack Problem with Application to a Chance-Constrained Problem |
17-May-2007 |
12 pages |
| Authors:
Moshe Kress; Michal Penn; Maria Polukarov; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
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| In this paper we present a new combinatorial problem, called minmax multidimensional knapsack problem (MKP), motivated by a military logistics problem. The logistics problem is a two-period, two-level, chance-constrained problem with recourse. We show that the MKP is NP-hard and develop a practically efficient combinatorial algorithm for solving it. We also show that under some reasonable assumptions regarding the operational setting of the logistics problem, the chance-constrained optimization problem is ... |
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| Routing Military Aircraft with a Constrained Shortest-Path Algorithm |
17-Apr-2007 |
44 pages |
| Authors:
W M Carlyle; Johannes O Royset; R K Wood; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
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| We formulate and solve aircraft-routing problems that arise when planning missions for military aircraft that are subject to ground-based threats such as surface-to-air missiles. We use a constrained-shortest path (CSP) model that discretizes the relevant airspace into a grid of vertices representing potential waypoints, and connects vertices with directed edges to represent potential flight segments. The model is flexible: It can route any type of manned or unmanned aircraft; it ... |
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