| The Effects of Stress on Judgement and Decision Making: An Overview and Arguments for a New Approach |
JAN 95 |
82 pages |
| Authors:
Kenneth R. Hammond; COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
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 | This monograph consists of an overview of four principal literatures on the effects of stress on human performance, with specific reference to studies of the effects of stress on human judgement and decision making. The four literatures are: Clinical/social/personality (Literature I), ergonomics/ human factors (Literature II), psychohysiology (Literature III), and judgement and decision making (Literature IV). |
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| Effects of Stress on Judgment and Decision Making in Dynamic Tasks |
JUN 91 |
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| Authors:
Kenneth R. Hammond; Cynthia M. Lusk; COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
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 | Three empirical studies on judgment and decision making in dynamic tasks were carried out during the period 1 September 1988 to 31 December 1989. Subjects were expert research meteorologists. Topics were forecasting (a) hail, (b) microbursts, and (c) convection initiation (thunderstorms) at an airport approach. Primary findings were as follows: in the hail study, meteorologists' forecasts were closely approximated by a weighted-sum model; in the microburst study, experts who worked ... |
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| Effects of Stress on Judgment and Decision Making in Dynamic Tasks |
MAY 89 |
37 pages |
| Authors:
Kenneth R. Hammond; COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
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| Studies of expert microburst forecasters were conducted. Two studies yielded results confirming the validity of a linear model of expert judgement and the meaningfulness of profiles as representations of weather phenomena. A simulation demonstrated that a simple scientifically and empirically ignorant forecasting model could perform as well as a sophisticated scientifically informed algorithm. A study conducted under dynamic and highly representative forecasting conditions yielded the following major findings: a) agreement ... |
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| Judgement and Decision Making in Dynamic Tasks |
AUG 88 |
40 pages |
| Authors:
Kenneth R. Hammond; COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
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| This research note presents a theory of task conditions on the grounds that such a theory is a prerequisite for studying dynamic decision making. The principal features of the theory are: a) a task-cognition inducement principle, b) a distinction drawn between surface and depth characteristics of tasks, and c) a task continuum index. Also presented is a theory of cognition in dynamic tasks, the main features of which are a ... |
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| Effects of Stress on Judgement and Decision Making in Dynamic Tasks |
OCT 87 |
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| Authors:
Kenneth R. Hammond; COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
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| Expert weather forecasters were observed as they attempted to forecast hail, microbursts, and severe storms. Studies of judgement policies were also conducted with representations of storms. Modest agreement among forecasters was found in all three cases, but hail forecasts were found to be of low accuracy. Judgement models, an AI expert system, and seven forecasters showed about the same degree of accuracy. Current psychological theory concerning judgement and decision making ... |
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| A Theoretically Based Review of Theory and Research in Judgment and Decision Making |
FEB 86 |
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| Authors:
Kenneth R. Hammond; COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
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| Barriers to unification lie in the false dichotomy and rivalry between intuition and analysis, the arbitrary choice of task conditions, and the absence of a theory of successful intuition, as well as in current research practices. A theoretical framework is presented that is intended to overcome these barriers. The theory is anchored in task conditions, specifies the variety of cognitive properties they induce, and indicates subsequent behavior. |
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| Generalizing Over Conditions by Combining the Multitrait Multimethod Matrix and the Representative Design of Experiments |
JAN 86 |
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| Authors:
Kenneth R. Hammond; Robert M. Hamm; Janet Grassia; COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
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| Analytical methods should be substituted for the current largely intuitive methods for generalizing results over conditions. Toward that end we present a methodology that combines Campbell and Fiske's (1959) multitrait multimethod matrix and Brunswik's (1956) representative design of experiments. A description of a study of expert judgement and a critique of current practices illustrate the methodology. Keywords: Multitrait multimethod; Representative design; Expert judgement; Generalization; Methodology. |
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| Moment by Moment Variation in the Cognitive Activity of Experts |
AUG 85 |
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| Authors:
R. M. Hamm; COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
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| This paper reports the analysis of moment by moment variation in the use of intuitive and analytical cognition by experts engaged in a complex judgement task. Six highway engineers were asked to think aloud while producing formulas that expressed their knowledge of how highway aesthetics, safety, and capacity are determined by sets of relevant factors. Each engineer's statements were measured with multiple indices of the use of intuitive or analytical ... |
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| Achieving Generality over Conditions: Combining the Multitrait Multimethod Matrix and the Representative Design of Experiments |
02 AUG 1984 |
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| Authors:
K. R. Hammond; R. M. Hamm; J. Grassia; COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
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| Doubts about the generality of results produced by psychological research have been expressed with increasing frequency since Koch observed, in 1959, that there is 'a stubborn refusal of psychological findings to yield to empirical generalization'. Campbell and Fiske's (1959) multitrait multimethod matrix and Brunswik's (1956) representative design of experiments are combined and extended in order to increase our ability to generalize over conditions in both experimental psychology and the study ... |
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| Task Conditions Versus Stable Individual Differences as Determinants of Experts' Judgement Policies |
SEP 1983 |
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| Authors:
R. M. Hamm; COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
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| An analysis of twenty-one highway experts' judgments of the safety of a set of highways, under three different task conditions, was undertaken to determine whether task conditions or stable individual differences in judgment policy had the stronger role in determining the experts' judgment performances. Two analytical approaches were used: comparing the correlations among performances within each individual expert over the different task conditions, and within each task over the different ... |
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| Direct Comparison of Intuitive, Quasi-Rational and Analytical Cognition |
JUN 1983 |
84 pages |
| Authors:
Kenneth R. Hammond; Robert M. Hamm; Janet Grassia; Tamra Pearson; COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
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| The relative efficacy of intuitive and analytical cognition in analytically competent persons was directly compared. More subjects performed best in the intuitive mode when inconsistency was removed from their judgments, an indication that the subjects possessed implicit knowledge that they did not utilize in the analytical mode. More subjects made larger errors in the analytical mode than in the intuitive mode. Subjects' confidence was generally inappropriately placed. (Author) |
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| Integration of Theory and Research in Judgment and Decision Making |
OCT 1981 |
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| Authors:
Kenneth R. Hammond; Gary H. McClelland; COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
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| This is the final report on the project aimed at the integration of theory and research on judgment and decision making. The specific goals, methods, and results are briefly indicated. The principal results of the project include the publication of two books and six technical reports. (Author) |
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| Detection of Multiplicative Synergisms in Simulated Data for Nonorthogonal Designs: What Lies Beyond Linearity? |
AUG 1981 |
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| Authors:
James Shanteau; COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
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| A three stage simulation was conducted to evaluate the impact that multiplicative synergisms have within nonorthogonal (regression) designs. In the first stage, various designs with differing cue intercorrelations and number of stimulus cases were generated. In the second stage, several response strategies were simulated, including adding, multiplying, and adding-multiplying strategies. In the final stage, various research techniques, involving both descriptive and inferential analyses, were applied to analyze the simulated data. ... |
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| User's Manual for the Evaluation and Sensitivity Analysis Program (ESAP). |
Mar 1981 |
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| Authors:
Jeryl Mumpower; Lee Bollacker; COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
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| The Evaluation and Sensitivity Analysis Program (ESAP) is an environmental planning technique for the evaluation of alternative water resource management plans. ESAP is based on a weighting-scaling approach to impact assessment and alternative evaluation. The evaluation of the desirability or acceptability of an alternative is based on a systematic combination of information about the impacts on the natural and cultural resources and information about the impacts on the natural and ... |
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| The Integration of Research in Judgment and Decision Theory |
JUL 1980 |
133 pages |
| Authors:
Kenneth R. Hammond; COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
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| The five major premises of the Cognitive Continuum Theory of judgment and decision making are described and the potential power of the theory to encompass and to unify the work in the field of judgment and decision making is indicated. Because the theory is anchored in the concepts of intuitive and analytical cognition the recent treatment of these topics is described in terms of (a) the positive view, in which ... |
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| Axioms for the Weighted Linear Model. |
JUL 1980 |
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| Authors:
Gary H. McClelland; COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
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| An axiomatization is provided for the weighted linear model for the case defined by three conditions; (a) two and only two attributes; (b) sparse, finite alternatives and attribute levels; and (c) constant attribute-level scale values across all orderings. Theorems outlining necessary conditions, sufficient conditions, and uniqueness for this case are also presented. The axiomatization is compared to a similar effort by Luce (1980). It is hoped that the axiomatization can ... |
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| The Concept of Weight in Judgment and Decision Making: A Review and Some Unifying Proposals. |
JUL 1980 |
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| Authors:
James Shanteau; COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
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| The concept of weight or importance is central to analyses of judgment and decision making. However, different theoretical approaches disagree about the interpretation and operational definition of weight. The purpose of this paper is: (1) to review the various approaches to judgment and decision making, and to consider how each defines weight, (2) to summarize some of the variables that can influence the weight estimates of each approach, (3) to ... |
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| Equal versus Differential Weighting for Multiattribute Decisions: There are No Free Lunches |
MAR 1978 |
53 pages |
| Authors:
Gary McClelland; COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
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| Recent work on parameter insensitivity in linear models (equal weighting arguments) is examined for its implications for multiattribute decision making. The key factor for the case equal weighting. It is argued that the non-negative attribute intercorrelations upon which the case for equal weighting of attributes is based does not generally hold for multiattribute decisions because the very tradeoffs which create the decision problem imply negative intercorrelations. After an examination of ... |
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