Current limitations of atmospheric predictive skill are investigated through comparison of correlation and error statistics of operational and research global models for two boreal winter seasons. In 1993, bias-corrected models produced anomaly correlations of 0.6 after 7 days, with relatively little forecast skill beyond that point. In 2003, the forecast skill of a more developed, higher-resolution operational model has been extended 36-48 h, while the skill of the unchanged, low-resolution ...
Passive tracer dispersion is studied in a two-layer, quasigeostrophic, beta-plane model in which persistent, steady, zonal jets are observed. Particle trajectories and statistics are examined for barriers to or mechanisms for mixing. Simulations are performed for two different values of the planetary vorticity gradient, and an Eulerian energy timescale and a lengthscale dependent on the number of jets in the flow are developed to enable comparison between the two systems. ...
Reports by Author
