| Training Critical Thinking Skills for Battlefield Situation Assessment: An Experimental Test |
OCT 96 |
63 pages |
| Authors:
Marvin S. Cohen; Jared T. Freeman; Jon J. Fallesen; F. F. Marvin; Terry A.. Bresnick; COGNITIVE TECHNOLOGIES INC ARLINGTON VA
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 | In battlefield situation assessment, officers must interpret information that is incomplete, unreliable, and often conflicting and gather new information to improve their assessments and plans. In previous work, a framework for these cognitive activities was developed based on interviews with activity-duty command staff, and a training method was developed. That training helped officers to find and assess the reliability of hidden assumptions and to resolve conflicting evidence. Forty-three U.S. Army ... |
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| Situation Assessment and Hypothesis Testing in an Evolving Situation |
MAR 96 |
57 pages |
| Authors:
M. A. Tolcott; F. F. Marvin; T. A. Bresnick; DECISION SCIENCE CONSORTIUM INC RESTON VA
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| This research investigated the effects of early judgment on (1) the handling of new information, some of which confirmed and some of which contradicted the early judgment, and (2) the selection of hypothesis-testing indicators. The context was situation assessment by Army intelligence analysts during an evolving battlefield scenario. Unaided analysts typically ignored or underweighted contradictory evidence; their confidence in their early judgment tended to rise. A second group was given ... |
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| Effects of Early Decisions on Later Judgments in an Evolving Situation |
OCT 95 |
102 pages |
| Authors:
Martin A. Tolcott; F. F. Marvin; Paul E. Lehner; DECISION SCIENCE CONSORTIUM INC RESTON VA
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| Army intelligence analysts were given a realistic battlefield scenario and asked to make preliminary decisions about most likely enemy avenue of approach, and their confidence level. Subsequently, they were asked to reconsider their decisions in the light of updated intelligence reports containing some items which confirmed and some which contradicted their early decisions. Three such updating judgments were requested. Finally, they were asked to rate each information item in terms ... |
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| Reducing the Confirmation Bias in an Evolving Situation |
FEB 95 |
41 pages |
| Authors:
Martin A. Tolcott; F. F. Marvin; DECISION SCIENCE CONSORTIUM INC RESTON VA
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| This report presents the results of Phase 2 research on decision making in an evolving situation. As in Phase 1, the problem context was situation assessment by trained Army intelligence analysts working in pairs. Participants were given an initial battlefield scenario and asked to determine the enemy's most likely avenue of approach and to give their level of confidence; subsequently they were asked to reconsider their decisions after receiving each ... |
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| Influence of Uncertainty and Time Stress on Decision Making |
OCT 93 |
124 pages |
| Authors:
John Leddo; James O. Chinnis Jr.; Marvin S. Cohen; F. F. Marvin; DECISION SCIENCE CONSORTIUM INC RESTON VA
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| This project studies the effects of uncertainty and time stress on the decision making of experienced Army officers playing the role of a division operations officer analyzing courses of action in a tactical scenario. Thirteen lieutenant colonels (LTC) were presented with a defensive scenario (a Fulda Gap scenario) and asked to analyze three courses of action and make a final recommendation. After being given time to familiarize themselves with the ... |
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| Knowledge Elicitation: Phase 1 Final Report. Volume 1 |
JUN 89 |
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| Authors:
John M. Leddo; Theresa M. Mullins; Marvin S. Cohen; Terry A. Bresnick; F. F. Marvin; DECISION SCIENCE CONSORTIUM INC RESTON VA
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 | This research note presents a framework for knowledge elicitation and representation based on theories of how experts themselves represent knowledge. Much previous work on knowledge elicitation has been guided by requirements of the systems for which the knowledge is to be encoded. Two methodologies are presented: an interpretive method, based on the premise that experts organize knowledge in a top down fashion; and a generative method, based on the premise ... |
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| SRA (Short Range Aids to Navigation) Resource Management: Measures of Effectiveness |
SEP 86 |
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| Authors:
Leonard Greenberg; Terry A. Bresnick; Jacob W. Ulvila; F. F. Marvin; Gup P. Clark; MANDEX INC SPRINGFIELD VA
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| This document describes the first phase of a five-year study designed to develop a decision model (or set of models) capable of supporting the resource management activities of the Coast Guard's Short Range Aids to Navigation Program. The first phase, which included visits to virtually all Coast Guard District Offices and meetings with pilots associations and selected user groups, resulted in the development of standardized, realistic measures by which the ... |
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