| Creating Algorithms as an Aid to Judgment |
JUN 90 |
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| Authors:
Sara Lichtenstein; Donald MacGregor; Paul Slovic; PERCEPTRONICS INC WOODLAND HILLS CA
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 | The strategy for aiding judgment presented in this report is algorithmic decomposition. To use this approach, a complicated or unknown quantity is decomposed into a number of subproblems that are more manageable or can be estimated more readily. Answers to the component parts of the problem are then combined according to a set of rules (an algorithm) to yield an answer to the original problem. In this experiment we gave ... |
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| Arithmetic Skills in Using Algorithms |
JUN 90 |
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| Authors:
Sarah Lichtenstein; Donald MacGregor; PERCEPTRONICS INC WOODLAND HILLS CA
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| An algorithm is a series of steps or operations that, when sequentially applied, produces a solution to a problem. Properly applied, algorithms are helpful when a complex or difficult numerical question can be broken into subquestions. This paper identifies and details a serious barrier to the effective use of algorithms: weak mathematical skills. Given an algorithm of 13 steps requiring copying, converting from percentages to proportions, adding, subtracting, multiplying, and ... |
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| Knowledge Elicitation of Recognition-Primed Decision Making |
JUL 88 |
62 pages |
| Authors:
Gary A. Klein; Donald MacGregor; KLEIN ASSOCIATES YELLOW SPRINGS OH
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 | A Critical Decision Method (CDM) has been developed for knowledge elicitation. The CDM, an extension of the critical incident technique, includes protocol analysis and memory recall tasks to study cognitive performance. A set of probes is employed to trace the development of situation assessment during critical incidents, and to determine the decision strategies used. The outputs of the method include inventories of the critical cues, graphic portrayals of the situation ... |
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| Structuring as an Aid to Performance in Base-Rate Problems |
JUN 88 |
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| Authors:
Sarah Lichtenstein; Donald MacGregor; PERCEPTRONICS INC WOODLAND HILLS CA
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| Four groups of college students were each given two base-rate problems. Three of the groups were given an aid with the first problem: 1) An instruction to list factors or aspects that were relevant to solving the problem; 2) a fill-in-the-blank algorithm that provided the correct solution; or 3) a seven-page tutorial that explained base-rate problems and showed how to solve them using a 2 x 2 table. No aid ... |
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| Structuring Knowledge Retrieval: An Analysis of Decomposed Quantitative Judgements |
JUN 88 |
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| Authors:
Donald MacGregor; Sarah Lichtenstein; Paul Slovic; PERCEPTRONICS INC WOODLAND HILLS CA
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| Subjects were asked to estimate the answers to sixteen questions concerning uncertain quantities like 'How many people are employed by hospitals in the U.S.?' under five different aiding conditions. The most-aided group (Full Algorithm) was given a complete algorithm and asked to make estimates for all the parts of the algorithm and to combine the parts as indicated to arrive at an estimate of the desired quantity. The second group ... |
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