| Trends in Land Combat (TLC) |
JUN 1998 |
74 pages |
| Authors:
Robert L. Helmbold; ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY BETHESDA MD
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 | This is an annotated briefing on trends in land combat that have persisted for extended periods of time (decades or even centuries). It specifically addresses the following topics relative to land combat operations: (1) rates of advance, (2) battle durations, (3) personnel strengths and attrition, (4) evolution of U.S. Army force structure, (5) Lanchester parameter values, and (6) the frequency and severity of wars. |
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| The Advantage Parameter: A Compilation of Phalanx Articles Dealing with the Motivation and Empirical Data Supporting Use of the Advantage Parameter as a General Measure of Combat Power |
JUL 97 |
64 pages |
| Authors:
Robert L. Helmbold; ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY BETHESDA MD
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| This paper is a compilation of previously published articles on the theoretical motivation and empirical data supporting use of the advantage parameter as a general measure of combat power. Some additional material has been added to provide suitable links and references to some of the material on which these articles are based. |
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| Personnel Attrition Rates in Historical Land Combat Operations: Losses of Divisions and Lower Level Land Combat Forces |
APR 97 |
378 pages |
| Authors:
Robert L. Helmbold; ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY BETHESDA MD
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| This paper presents historical data on selected aspects of personnel losses to divisions and lower echelon forces, including individuals, in land combat operations. |
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| Personnel Attrition Rates in Historical Land Combat Operations: Losses of National Populations, Armed Forces, Army Groups, and Lower Level Land Combat Forces |
APR 96 |
156 pages |
| Authors:
Robert L. Helmbold; ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY BETHESDA MD
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| This paper presents historical data on selected aspects of personnel losses to national populations and armed forces at various echelons in wars, theater operations, and tactical actions. |
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| Personnel Attrition Rates in Historical Land Combat Operations. Some Empirical Relations among Force Sizes, Battle Durations |
MAR 95 |
140 pages |
| Authors:
Robert L. Helmbold; ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY BETHESDA MD
|
| This paper uses historical data to develop some of the empirical relationships connecting the number of total battle casualties (TBC) to force sizes and battle durations. Here TBC is defined to be the sum of the killed in action (KIA), wounded in action (WIA), and captured or missing in action (CMIA). Because these relations may be affected by battle date, long-term trends with respect to battle date are also included. ... |
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| Personnel Attrition Rates in Historical Land Combat Operations: A Note on the Probability of Readmissions and Multiple Wounds |
APR 94 |
52 pages |
| Authors:
Robert L. Helmbold; ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY BETHESDA MD
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| This paper develops a model of the probability of multiple incidence. The model is based on an application of the Maximum Entropy Principle. The predictions of this model are tested against data on the number of aircraft with multiple personnel casualties, the number of casualties with multiple anatomical regions wounded, the number of personnel with multiple wounds, and the number of personnel with multiple WIA admissions. It is shown that ... |
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| Personnel Attrition Rates in Historical Land Combat Operations: Susceptibility and Vulnerability of Major Anatomical Regions |
AUG 93 |
71 pages |
| Authors:
Robert L. Helmbold; ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY BETHESDA MD
|
| This paper uses published personnel attrition data to estimate the susceptibility and vulnerability of major anatomical regions to threats similar to bullets and shell fragments. Its findings will be useful to those engaged in weapons systems analysis and development, war gaming and simulation, and the assessment of personal protective devices. Personnel, Combat, Attrition, Battle, Casualties, Losses. |
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| Personnel Attrition Rates in Historical Land Combat Operations: An Annotated Bibliography |
JUN 93 |
470 pages |
| Authors:
Robert L. Helmbold; ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY BETHESDA MD
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| This annotated bibliography is intended to provide a guide to the literature on personnel attrition rates in historical land combat operations. It should be useful to all who need to consider historical attrition rates for the purpose of modeling, wargaming, studies, and analysis. since it includes well over 200 titles, several aids are provided to facilitate its use. First, all documents are given a short title that consists of the ... |
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| Foundations of the General Theory of Volley Fire |
SEP 92 |
82 pages |
| Authors:
Robert L. Helmbold; ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY BETHESDA MD
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| Volley fire problems arise frequently in applied military operations research work, and this paper develops a powerful general theory whose systematic application to volley fire problems greatly aids in their solution. This provides US Army and other military analysts ready access to systematic methods whose application can greatly simplify the solution of volley fire attrition models. In the simpler cases, the theory leads directly to elegant formulas for the expectation ... |
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| The Influence of the Numerical Strength of Engaged Forces on their Casualties |
30 SEP 91 |
80 pages |
| Authors:
Robert L. Helmbold; Allan S. Rehm; ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY BETHESDA MD
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| This is an English translation of the seminal work of M. Osipov, originally published in Russian. It is provided because Osipov's work is so important historically and methodologically that it deserves to be better known in the west. For instance, as early as 1915, Osipov discovered Lanchester's square law of attrition, and tested it using historical data. Osipov's work also contains many insightful remarks and other findings of interest to ... |
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| Rates of Advance in Historical Land Combat Operations |
JUN 90 |
157 pages |
| Authors:
Robert L. Helmbold; ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY BETHESDA MD
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| The U.S. Army Concepts Analysis Agency (CAA) is pleased to host and support our Secretary of the Army Research and Study Fellow for 1989-90, Dr. Robert L. Helmbold, who won this fellowship with an excellent proposal for research into the basic phenomena underlying advances by military forces in land combat operations. The basic approach used was to : (a) Obtain through extensive personal visits, correspondence, and phone calls all of ... |
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| A Survey of Past Work on Rates of Advance in Land Combat Operations |
FEB 90 |
132 pages |
| Authors:
Robert L. Helmbold; ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY BETHESDA MD
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| This reports an investigation into the distances, durations, and rates of advance of land combat forces. The work consists of four phases. The first phase was devoted to assembling as much of the existing statistical data on historical rates of advance as possible, and to computerizing the data. The second phase consists of a comprehensive survey and critical review of the literature to identify trends, omissions and gaps, and to ... |
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| A Compilation of Data on Rates of Advance in Land Combat Operations |
FEB 90 |
426 pages |
| Authors:
Robert L. Helmbold; ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY BETHESDA MD
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| The U.S. Army Concepts Analysis Agency (CAA) is pleased to host and support our Secretary of the Army Research and Study Fellow for 1989-1990, Dr. Robert L. Helmbold, who won this Fellowship with an excellent proposal for research on rates of advance in land combat operations. This Research Paper surveys the available statistical data on rates of advance. He plans to use these data to study the principal factors governing ... |
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| Do Battles and Wars Have a Common Relationship between Casualties and Victory? |
NOV 87 |
67 pages |
| Authors:
Robert L. Helmbold; ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY BETHESDA MD
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| This study examines whether a relation between casualties and victory in land combat battles, discovered in the course of earlier research, holds also for wars. It finds that this relation, or one similar to it, quite likely does hold for wars as well as battles. The paper also includes a brief exploration of the trend over historical time of the key quantities involved. It appears that the key variables involved ... |
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| An Algorithm for Calculating the Area of Overlap of an Ellipse and a Convex Polygon |
NOV 87 |
62 pages |
| Authors:
Robert L. Helmbold; ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY BETHESDA MD
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| This paper describes a new and improved algorithm for estimating in computer simulations the area of overlap of an ellipse and a convex polygon. The need for such algorithms arises frequently in military operations analysis, in particular in estimating the portion of a rectangular target overlapped by a disk-shaped nuclear coverage area. A detailed description of the algorithm and illustrations of its application are included. Keywords: Military operations research, Nuclear ... |
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| Combat History Analysis Study Effort (CHASE) |
AUG 86 |
268 pages |
| Authors:
Robert L. Helmbold; Aqeel A. Khan; ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY BETHESDA MD
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| The Reason for Performing the Study was to carry out the initial phase of the Combat History Analysis Study Effort (CHASE), whose ultimate purpose is to search for historically-based quantitative results for use in military operations research, concept formulation, wargaming, the studies and analyses. The Principal Finding of the work done during the period covered by this paper (August 1984 to June 1985) is that data on historical battles can ... |
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| A General Mathematical Treatment of Hazards to NBC Collective Protection Systems with Applications to Particular Cases |
20 SEP 1982 |
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| Authors:
Robert L. Helmbold; NAVAL AIR DEVELOPMENT CENTER WARMINSTER PA SYSTEMS DIRECTORATE
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 | This document presents a general mathematical development of the theory of vapor contamination hazards to nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) collective protection systems. An important general result is derived and then illustrated by applying it to selected examples of special interest in studies of NBC defense. This work was performed under the Naval Aircraft Combat Survivability Program's Task F-82-11 Aircraft Protection/Decontamination Requirements for Naval Air Operations in a CBR Environment. ... |
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| On Mathematical Programs for Optimizing Combat Air Patrol Stationing and Intercept Vectoring Tactics |
26 JAN 1982 |
24 pages |
| Authors:
Robert L. Helmbold; NAVAL AIR DEVELOPMENT CENTER WARMINSTERPA
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| Air Battles and Ground Battles - A Common Pattern, |
JAN 1971 |
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| Authors:
Robert L. Helmbold; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF
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| A pattern of behavior is proposed that seems to be exhibited by historical air battles. This pattern is developed by analyzing data on the Battle of Britain and comparing the results obtained to similar findings already known to hold for the ground combat situation. The fact that this pattern is shared both by land battles and by the Battle of Britain (where the action was fought entirely in the air) ... |
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| PROBABILITY OF VICTORY IN LAND COMBAT AS RELATED TO FORCE RATIO, |
OCT 1969 |
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| Authors:
Robert L. Helmbold; RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF
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| The influence of force ratio, or numerical superiority, on victory in battle has been a subject for debate and conjecture for many years. One frequently hears that a 3-to-1 force ratio in the assault is necessary for, or (in other versions) sufficient to ensure, victory in land engagements. These statements are sufficiently common that an investigation of their validity is in order. The paper is a contribution to a determination ... |
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