| Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Part IV: Sources of Large Track Errors by Dynamical Models |
AUG 2000 |
|
| Authors:
Grahame Reader; mark A. Boothe; Russell L. Elsberry; Lester E. Carr III; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
 | Sources of 72-h track errors> 300 n mi by four dynamical model tropical cyclone predictions in the Southern Hemisphere during the 1997-98 and 1998-99 seasons are studied using conceptual models Carr and Elsberry have previously developed for the western North Pacific. Each of these conceptual models describes how the dynamical model incorrectly predicts a known physical cause of tropical cyclone motion. Midlatitade circulation-related error sources ... |
|
| Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Part 4: Sources of Large Track Errors by Dynamical Models |
AUG 2000 |
58 pages |
| Authors:
Grahame Reader; mark A. Boothe; Russell L. Elsberry; Lester E. Carr III; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF METEOROLOGY
|
 | Sources of 72-h track errors > 300 n mi by four dynamical model tropical cyclone predictions in the Southern Hemisphere during the 1997-98 and 1998-99 seasons are studied using conceptual models Carr and Elsberry have previously developed for the western North Pacific. Each of these conceptual models describes how the dynamical model incorrectly predicts a known physical cause of tropical cyclone motion. Midlatitude circulation-related error ... |
|
| Atlantic Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part 1. Environmental Structure Characteristics |
JUN 2000 |
83 pages |
| Authors:
mark A. Boothe; Russell L. Elsberry; Lester E. Carr III; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF METEOROLOGY
|
| This Meteorological knowledge base for application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the Atlantic basin follows from similar knowledge bases previously developed for the western North Pacific, the eastern and central North Pacific, and the Southern Hemisphere. A common environment structure terminology has been adopted in which three synoptic patterns (Standard, Poleward, and Midlatitude) are found in each of these basins. ... |
|
| Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part 3, Updated Environmental Structure Characteristics |
SEP 1999 |
80 pages |
| Authors:
Grahame Reader; mark A. Boothe; Russell L. Elsberry; Lester E. Carr III; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| The Meteorological knowledge base of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting in the Southern Hemisphere has been updated to reflect a more global terminology. Examples of these new environment structures in operational (NOGAPS) analyses and tracks are given. Perhaps the most important conclusion is that all cases in the 1990-91 through 1998-1999 seasons could be classified into one of these 14 synoptic pattern/region ... |
|
| Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part 3. Traits Knowledge Base for JTWC Track Forecast Models in the Western North Pacific |
JUN 1999 |
236 pages |
| Authors:
Lester E. Carr III; Russell L. Elsberry; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF METEOROLOGY
|
| All highly erroneous NOGAPS and GFDN track forecasts (72-h error > 300 n mi) in the western North Pacific during 1997 are examined and responsible error mechanisms are identified using the conceptual models of the Systematic Approach Meteorological Knowledge Base. An important and encouraging result of this research is that only six error mechanisms account for 84% (91 of 108) of the poor NOGAPS track forecasts, and only three error ... |
|
| Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part 2. Climatology and Refinement of Meteorological Knowledge Base |
SEP 1998 |
77 pages |
| Authors:
Anthony J. Bannister; mark A. Boothe; Lester E. Carr III; Russell L. Elsberry; SPACE AND NAVAL WARFARE SYSTEMS COMMANDSAN DIEGO CA
|
| The preliminary adaptation by Bannister et al. (1997) of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting meteorological knowledge base to the Southern Hemisphere has been extended to eight seasons (1990-91 through 1997-98), which includes 145 (90) cyclones in the South Indian (Pacific) region. A total of 3257 synoptic pattern/region classifications could be described in the context of only four synoptic patterns and 11 synoptic regions. Updated track summaries ... |
|
| Condensed and Updated Version of the Systematic Approach Meteorological Knowledge Base Western North Pacific |
DEC 1997 |
175 pages |
| Authors:
Lester E. Carr III; Russell L. Elsberry; Mark A . Boothe; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| The meteorological knowledge base for the Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cydone Track Forecasting proposed by Carr and Elsberry has evolved as additional research has been completed. This Systematic Approach has been applied in the eastern and central North Pacific, and in the Southern Hemisphere, a number of conceptual models have been refined and new terminology has been adopted to reflect global applicability. As a knowledge based expert system ... |
|
| Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part 1: Environmental Structure Characteristics |
DEC 1997 |
104 pages |
| Authors:
Anthony J. Bannister; mark A. Boothe; Lester E. Carr III; Russell L. Elsberry; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| The environment structure conceptual models of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting technique of Carr and Elsberry are applied to all Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones during January 1994 - June 1997. Whereas three of the four synoptic patterns from the western North Pacific could be applied with relatively small modifications, a new High (H) amplitude synoptic pattern was defined to classify the situations with large meridional penetrations of ... |
|
| Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part 2: Climatology, Reproducibility, and Refinement of Meteorological Knowledge Base |
SEP 95 |
105 pages |
| Authors:
Lester E. Carr III; mark A. Boothe; Sean R. White; Chris S. Kent; Russell L. Elsberry; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF METEOROLOGY
|
| This report continues the development of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting by Carr and Elsberry (1994) with specific application to the western Pacific region. Five years (1989-93) of 12-h Naval Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) analyses are examined for every tropical cyclone to establish a climatology of Environment Structure characterizations. Frequencies of the four Synoptic Patterns and the six Synoptic Regions are calculated, and characteristic tracks ... |
|
| Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 1 . Approach Overview and Description of Meteorological Basis |
JAN 95 |
287 pages |
| Authors:
Lester E. Carr III; Russell L. Elsberry; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF METEOROLOGY
|
| A systematic and integrated approach to tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting is proposed. The approach is based on the premise that TC forecasters can improve upon dynamical track forecasts generated by numerical models and other objective guidance, if the forecasters are equipped with: (1) a meteorological knowledge base of conceptual models that organizes a wide array of scenarios into a relatively few recurring, dynamically-related situations; and (2) a knowledge base ... |
|
| Advances in Dynamical Predictions and Modelling of Tropical Cyclone Motion |
MAR 93 |
133 pages |
| Authors:
Russell L. Elsberry; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| Recent advances in the use of numerical models for dynamical track predictions and modelling of tropical cyclone motion are reviewed. New applications of barotropic models for operational track predictions are described first. Barotropic models continue to be used by researchers to illustrate the importance of the symmetric and asymmetric components of the initial vortex in the model. New numerical techniques such as adaptive grids are shown to be well suited ... |
|
| West Coast Picket Fence Feasibility Study During Storm-Fest I. Field Program Summary |
JUL 92 |
150 pages |
| Authors:
Richard J. Lind; Paul A. Hirschberg; David W. Titley; Russell L. Elsberry; NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION WASHINGTON DC
|
| The West Coast Picket Fence was a series of seven special rawinsonde sites interspersed among the seven regular rawinsonde sites along the west coast. In addition to the improved spatial resolution, rawinsondes were launched every 3 h at all 14 sites to improve time resolution during four Intensive Observing Periods. The objective was to demonstrate the feasibility of the Picket Fence observations by providing improved upstream boundary conditions for the ... |
|
| Operations Plan for the Tropical Cyclone Motion (TCM-92) Mini-Field Experiment |
MAY 92 |
51 pages |
| Authors:
Russell L. Elsberry; George M. Dunnavan; Eric J. McKinley; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF METEOROLOGY
|
| A WC-130 instrumented aircraft will be deployed in the Western North Pacific region near Guam during 21 July-18 August 1992 to obtain in situ measurements in Mesoscale Convective Systems embedded in tropical cyclones. Four hypotheses related to different tropical cyclone track modification or genesis mechanisms will be tested. The scientific basis for these hypotheses is described and observations and models of midlatitude mesoscale convective systems are reviewed to provide a ... |
|
| ONR Tropical Cyclone Motion Research Initiative: Data Users Guide to Observations |
JUL 91 |
126 pages |
| Authors:
Patrick A. Harr; Tamar Neta; Russell L. Elsberry; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF METEOROLOGY
|
| The Tropical Cyclone Motion (TCM-90) Data User's Guide addresses the collection, types, preparation, quality control, format and data base structure for all data collected during the field phase of TCM-90. Additionally, this Guide addresses the data collected from the three concurrent tropical cyclone field experiments (Elsberry 1990): (1) ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Special Experiment Concerning Typhoon Recurvature and Unusual Movement (SPECTRUM); (2) USSR TYPHOON-90 expedition; and (3) Taiwan Area Typhoon Experiment ... |
|
| ONR Tropical Cyclone Motion Research Initiative: Field Experiment Summary |
NOV 90 |
116 pages |
| Authors:
Russell L. Elsberry; B. C. Diehl; J. C.-l. Chan; P. A. Harr; G. J. Holland; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| The Tropical Cyclone Motion initiative is a five-year program to improve basic understanding of tropical cyclone motion. The tropical Cyclone Motion (TCM-90) field experiment was carried out during August and September 1990. The first section of this report describes the data management plan for TCM-90, and includes descriptions of the observational systems that provided data in real-time and on a delayed basis. The second section of this report summarizes the ... |
|
| ONR Tropical Cyclone Motion Research Initiative: Data Assimilation Considerations for Field Experiment Analyses |
SEP 89 |
70 pages |
| Authors:
Russell L. Elsberry; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| The Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Motion initiative is a five-year program to improve understanding of tropical cyclone motion. On 31 August-1 September 1989, a workshop was held in Monterey, California to consider the characteristics of data assimilation systems for tropical analyses. The focus is on special considerations that might apply in preparing a set of final analyses of the observations to be obtained in the Tropical Cyclone Motion ... |
|
| ONR (Office of Naval Research) Tropical Cyclone Motion Research Initiative: Mid-Year Review, Discussion and Working Group Reports |
SEP 88 |
|
| Authors:
Russell L. Elsberry; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| The Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Motion initiative is a five-year program to improve basic understanding of tropical cyclone motion. On 29 June - 1 July 1988, a meeting was held near Brisbane, Australia to: (i) Review recent research activities; (ii) Discuss issues and plan future research; (iii) Discuss the hypotheses that might be explored in a field experiment in the western North Pacific region during summer 1990; and ... |
|
| ONR Tropical Cyclone Motion Research Initiative; First-Year Review, Discussion and Tentative Hypotheses |
FEB 88 |
|
| Authors:
Russell L. Elsberry; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| The ONR Tropical Cyclone Motion initiative is a five-year program to improve basic understanding of tropical cyclone motion. On 27-30 January 1988, a meeting was held in Monterey, Calif to: 1) Review the first year's research activities; 2) Discuss issues and plan future research; and 3) Begin discussion of tentative hypotheses that might be explored in a field experiment in the western North Pacific region during summer 1990. Each of ... |
|
| Interim Review of the Possibilities and Opportunities for the ONR tropical Cyclone Motion Research Initiative |
SEP 87 |
|
| Authors:
Russell L. Elsberry; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| Expanded opportunities for theoretical studies of tropical cyclone motion are suggested in terms of more representative environmental structures and physical processes. Concurrent experimentation with state-of-the-art numerical models are recommended, especially for environmental conditions related to western North Pacific tropical cyclones. A review of existing observational data sets for testing hypotheses indicated that all satellite derived fields were already being studied. Thus a need exists for additional data sets, perhaps through ... |
|
| Potential Observing Systems for Tropical Cyclone Motion Studies |
MAY 87 |
|
| Authors:
Russell L. Elsberry; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| A synopsis is presented of a workshop during April 1987 sponsored jointly by the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Marine Meteorology Section of the Office of Naval Research (ONR). The objective of the workshop was to exchange information and begin documentation of observational systems that can be used in tropical cyclone studies. HRD personnel described the objectives of their annual field ... |
|
| Design Considerations for an Advanced Tropical Cyclone Model |
OCT 85 |
|
| Authors:
Russell L. Elsberry; Michael Fiorino; NAVAL ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION RESEARCH FACILITY MONTEREY CA
|
| A project planning meeting on dynamical tropical cyclone models was held january 3-4 1985 at NAVENVPREDRSCHFAC to guide development of a next- generation forecast model, or Advanced Tropical Cyclone Model (ATCM). The meeting was structured in three groups: an Operational group (OP) to provide forecaster needs and real world constraints; a Numerical Aspects group (NUM) with expertise in the numerical modeling issues; and a Data Analysis and Initialization group (DAI) ... |
|
| Southern Hemisphere Application of the Navy Nested Tropical Cyclone Model |
DEC 1982 |
|
| Authors:
James E. Peak; Russell L. Elsberry; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| The Navy Nested Tropical Cyclone model is evaluated for performance on southern hemisphere storms in the Australian region. East of 135 E the model exhibits mean forecast errors of 246, 467 and 694 km at 24, 48 and 72 h, respectively. West of 135 E the mean forecast errors are 214, 511 and 745 km at 24, 48 and 72 h. The NTCM tends to have a poleward directional bias ... |
|
| Deriving Corrections to FNOC Surface Heat Flux Estimates for Use in North Pacific Ocean Predictions |
SEP 1982 |
|
| Authors:
Russell L. Elsberry; Patrick C. Gallacher; Arlene A. Bird; Roland W. Garwood Jr; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| The specification of the surface heat flux is essential for synoptic and seasonal prediction of the upper ocean thermal structure. Estimates of the surface heat flux have been prepared for the central North Pacific during January 1976 through April 1979 using archived fields from the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center (FNOC) atmospheric prediction model. Monthly accumulations of the surface heat flux are compared with the change in heat content above 200 ... |
|
| Ocean/Troposphere/Stratosphere Forecast Systems: A State-of-the-Art Review |
FEB 1982 |
|
| Authors:
Russell L. Elsberry; Robert L. Haney; R. Terry Williams; Richard S. Bogart; Harry D. Hamilton; SYSTEMS AND APPLIED SCIENCES CORP MONTEREY CA
|
| The question of the feasibility of developing a coupled Ocean- Troposphere-Stratosphere Forecast System is discussed. The system would be run operationally by Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center (FNOC). Specifically, the state-of-the-art ocean-atmosphere modeling is reviewed to decide if such a forecast system is feasible during the next five years (1982-87). The conclusion of the review is that such a system is not operationally feasible in the next five years. Modeling research ... |
|
| Statistical Post-Processing of the Navy Nested Tropical Cyclone Model and the Operational Tropical Cyclone Model |
SEP 1981 |
|
| Authors:
James E. Peak; Russell L. Elsberry; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| A statistical technique proposed by Elsberry and Frill (1980) for adjusting dynamical tropical cyclone motion forecasts is extended to the Two-Way Interactive Nested Tropical Cyclone Model (NTCM) and the operational One-Way Interactive Tropical Cyclone Model (TCMO). The technique utilizes linear regression equations to reduce systemic errors. Backward extrapolation positions are presented as a less expensive, but inferior, alternative to the backward integration positions required by the original technique. A scheme ... |
|
| First-Generation Numerical Ocean Prediction Models -- Goal for the 1980's. |
DEC 1979 |
|
| Authors:
Russell L. Elsberry; Roland W. Garwood Jr; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
|
| Using the experience of numerical weather prediction during the 1950's and 1960's as a model, a case is presented for development during the 1980's of an ocean prediction capability. Examples selected from recent research at the Naval Postgraduate School are used to illustrate some aspects of the theoretical background, representation of physical processes, observational-support systems and the justification for a first-generation ocean prediction system. (Author) |
|
| Operational Data Tests with a Tropical Cyclone Model. |
MAR 1977 |
|
| Authors:
Russell L. Elsberry; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF
|
| The coarse-grid version of Ley and Elsberry tropical cyclone prediction model was used to evaluate the effect of using operationally-analyzed rather than hand-analyzed data. A series of 41 cases from the 1975 typhoon season resulted in larger errors than the official forecasts. In most cases the track was forecast well, but the translation speed was slow. Tests with a 4th-order advection scheme did not lead to significant improvements over the ... |
|
| Monthly Heat Budget Calculations for the Eastern North Pacific Ocean Using Synoptic-Scale Data. |
JUN 1975 |
|
| Authors:
Robert Timothy Schnoor; Russell L. Elsberry; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF
|
| A heat budget was calculated for the upper 250 m of the eastern North Pacific Ocean using data from Fleet Numerical Weather Central. The motivation for the study is the proposed ocean basin application of mixed-layer models. The heat budget calculation indirectly determined the magnitude of subsurface physical processes by comparing the monthly change in heat storage with the net air-sea heat flux. The heat storage values were derived from ... |
|
| Feasibility of an Operational Tropical Cyclone Prediction Model for the Western North Pacific Area. |
15 MAY 1975 |
|
| Authors:
Russell L. Elsberry; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF
|
| Recent developments in numerical simulation of tropical cyclones and in limited-area, fine-mesh modeling of non-tropical systems are reviewed. Feasibility of developing an operational model for the western North Pacific Ocean region is discussed in terms of a nested grid model. Boundary conditions, numerical techniques, initialization and representation of the physical processes are considered. It is recommended that several Navy agencies cooperate in the development of an operational model to improve ... |
|
| Typhoon and Tropical Storm Intensity Forecasts for 24, 48 and 72 Hours using Statistical Regression Equations, |
MAR 1974 |
|
| Authors:
Russell L. Elsberry; Glenn G. Coltrane; Paul L. Krueger Jr; ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION RESEARCH FACILITY (NAVY) MONTEREY CALIF
|
| A ten-year (1960-1969) sample of observations for western North Pacific tropical cyclones over the open ocean was used to derive statistical regression equations to forecast the maximum wind speed for 24-, 48-, and 72-hr periods. An independent sample of tropical cyclones (July, August and September of 1955-59) was used to test the derived regression equations. Verification was in terms of the relative forecast error according to the acceptability criteria set ... |
|
| A Quasi-Empirical Model of the Hurricane Boundary Layer, |
31 JAN 1974 |
|
| Authors:
Russell L. Elsberry; Nils A. S. Pearson; Leino B. Corgnati Jr; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF
|
| Solutions have been obtained for the temperature and moisture distributions within the atmospheric boundary layer of an axisymmetric hurricane model. The intensity of the hurricane is related to the equivalent potential temperature gradient produced by a balance of heat sources and advection within the boundary layer. Solutions are obtained using the bulk aerodynamic transport equations or applying a two-layer, baroclinic boundary layer model by Cardone (1969). Equilibrium maximum wind speeds ... |
|
| An Experimental Method of Determining Ballistic Winds Making Direct Use of SIRS Radiances. |
31 DEC 1971 |
|
| Authors:
Russell L. Elsberry; John W. Wright; Frank L. Martin; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF
|
| A proposed ballistic wind determination technique using the satellite infrared spectrophotometer (SIRS) data from NIMBUS 3 and 4 was tested. The general approach was to derive regression equations from a dependent data sample of nearly coincident subsatellite points and rawinsonde locations. The validity of the equations was checked with a smaller independent sample of SIRS radiances from a later period. Tests with the ballistic wind component normal to the path ... |
|
| An Experimental Method of Determining Ballistic Densities Making Direct Use of SIRS Radiances. |
31 JAN 1971 |
|
| Authors:
Russell L. Elsberry; Frank L. Martin; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF
|
| A technique for calculating ballistic density from Satellite Infrared Spectrometer (SIRS) radiance data is described. A model experiment in which radiance values are calculated from the temperature sounding is used to verify the technique. In a second experiment real-time SIRS radiances were used with synoptic and geographically-consistent soundings for evaluation of the ballistic density. For the limited data sample tested, the technique of computing ballistic densities from satellite radiances is ... |
|
| A HIGH-ROTATION GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL EXPERIMENT WITH CYCLIC TIME CHANGES, |
DEC 1968 |
|
| Authors:
Russell L. Elsberry; COLORADO STATE UNIV FORT COLLINS DEPT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
|
| The phenomenon of vacillation in a rotating annulus is studied as a possible analogue for the atmospheric index cycle. With a simple distribution of heat sources an effort is made to isolate the essential mechanisms by which a baroclinic fluid system undergoes periodic variations in troughline tilt and vortex growth and decay. (Author) |
|
Reports by Author
