| The Correct Use of Subject Matter Experts in Cost Risk Analysis |
30 Apr 2010 |
78 pages |
| Authors:
Richard L Coleman; Peter J Braxton; Eric R Druker; TASC INC CHANTILLY VA
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 | Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) are commonly used in cost risk analysis for values that either are not available in historical data or for which no appropriate analogy can be found. Problems commonly arise in two areas in particular: (1) when multiple experts give opinions on a single effect or entity and the inputs are not identical in distribution (which is almost inevitable), and (2) when a single expert provides distributional ... |
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| A Non-Simulation Based Method for Inducing Pearson's Correlation Between Input Random Variables |
23-Apr-2008 |
46 pages |
| Authors:
Eric R Druker; Richard L Coleman; Peter J Braxton; NORTHROP GRUMMAN-TASC CHANTILLY VA
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| Several previously published papers have cited the need to include correlation in risk analysis models. In particular, a landmark paper published by Philip Lurie and Matthew Goldberg presented a methodology for inducing Pearson's correlation between input/independent random variables. The one subject, absent from the paper, was a methodology for finding the optimal applied correlation matrix given a desired outcome correlation. Since the publishing of the Lurie-Goldberg paper, there has been ... |
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| An Enterprise Model of Rising Ship Costs: Loss of Learning Due to Time between Ships and Labor Force Instability |
30 Apr 2007 |
47 pages |
| Authors:
Richard L Coleman; Jessica R Summerville; Bethia L Cullis; Eric R Druker; Gabriel B Rutledge; Peter J Braxton; NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC POLICY
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| Since the end of the Cold War, the perceived need for Navy ships has dropped, and so the shipbuilding budget has dropped. Seemingly coincidental with this budgetary pressure, and perversely aggravating the problem, ship costs began to rise steeply. We will set aside that ships have grown in weight by about three percent per year since World War II and that ever- more weapon systems are being put into them, ... |
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