Very Short Range Statistical Forecasting of Automated Weather Observations

Authors: R. G. Miller; NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SILVER SPRING MD

Abstract:

A procedure is developed for providing weather forecasting guidance over the short period between 1 to 60 minutes. It uses automated surface observation elements as predictors and predictands. The same equations project probabilistic predictions iteratively minute-by-minute. The model is founded on a Markov assumption and utilizes multivariate linear regression as the statistical operator. Details are given on how the model is constructed and how it compares with other objective methods such as climatology and persistence. Tests are performed on a new nonlinear approach.

Description:

Interim rept. Sep 83-Oct 84

Pages:

Report Date:

NOV 1984

Contract Number:

DTFA01-83-Y-20625

Report Number:

A935941

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Keywords relating to this report:

LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS

MARKOV PROCESSES

MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION