Real-Time Forecasting System of Winds, Waves and Surge in Tropical Cyclones

Authors: Hans C Graber; Mark D Powell; Peter G Black; Robert E Jensen; Donald R Thompson; Scott C Hagen; Donald N Slinn; Michael G Brown; Mark A Donelan; John L Guiney; ROSENSTIEL SCHOOL OF MARINE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE MIAMI FL DIV OF APPLIED MARINE PHYSICS

Abstract:

The long-term goal of this partnership is to establish an operational forecasting system of the wind field and resulting waves and surge impacting the coastline during the approach and landfall of tropical cyclones. The results of this forecasting system would provide real-time information to the National Hurricane Center during the tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic for establishing improved advisories for the general public and federal agencies including military and civil emergency response teams. Objectives: (1) To define output products necessary to enhance the guidance skills of the Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory product. (2) To test the model infra-structure that would lead toward better forecast information for landfall hurricane wind, wave, and surge conditions. Several historical storms will be used to assess model infra-structure. (3) To develop the interface that couples high-resolution cyclone wind fields to the selected wind model. (4) To develop a system that couples storm surge and spectral wave models driven by winds specified in 6). (5) Test entire system via a proof-of-concepts approach with data from several historical hurricanes. (6) Test system in semi-operational mode during several hurricane seasons and begin transition to fully operational mode.

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APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE