Proteus Insights and the Protean Media Critical Thinking Game, Examining Future Complexity (CSL Issuer Paper, June 2006, Volume 03-06)

Authors: Bill Wimbish; ARMY WAR COLL CARLISLE BARRACKS PA CENTER FOR STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP

Abstract:

As our Nation continues to deal with the aftermath of 9/11, the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT), and subsequent supporting operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, it has become harshly apparent that we have entered a new age of complexity. Leaders are going back to the drawing board to rethink how we deal and cope with future challenges spawned by the age of knowledge. Technology has enabled our foes to adapt and attack the fabric of our fundamental values, beliefs and foundations which have made our nation the global power it is today. These new-age threats have and will continue to be aimed at our vulnerabilities and seams. Using idiosyncratic methods and asymmetric techniques, super empowered groups and individuals are able to hide, adapt, and strike quickly, with precision. The question for the future is: have we learned to cope with uncertainty, ambiguity and complexity? In order to holistically analyze our vulnerabilities and identify these threats, we must determine systemic root causes of national security issues, applying solutions and developing strategies that can withstand the long term rigors of a complex interconnected world. We must understand what it is we want to do and what we do not want to have happen. But if we can't repeat patterns, and if outcomes based on constant inputs are not constant, then how can we anticipate or predict what is on the future horizon? Today the most elusive and complex phenomena is human thought, behavior and interactive social networks within the cognitive domain. We often perceive cognitive thought and resultant human actions to be irrational or illogical. However, what may seem irrational to us may be rational within a different context a context based on different life experiences, social, cultural and religion norms or ideologies.

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APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE