Indonesia in the Year 2000,

Authors: Thomas L. Wilborn; ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA

Abstract:

By 2000, the population of Indonesia--especially the overcrowded island of Java--will have increased at least some 40 to 50%. While Indonesia's agriculture should be more productive than it is now, it is unlikely that increases in output can keep up with increases in demand. Economic development will also be restrained by shortages of skilled technical and management personnel, infrastructure, and foreign exchange earned by the export of petroleum. Petroleum sales will not be as limited as earlier forecasts suggested, but by 2000 most crude oil production, which will be declining, will be consumed within Indonesia. The course of political developments in Indonesia is more difficult to forecast than economic trends. While the present regime seems secure, Indonesian political institutions are unresponsive and fragile, and economic inequality, corruption, and mismanagement could provide catalysts for instability. Moreover, even if there are no radical political changes, the Indonesian political/military leadership of 2000 may not be pro-American and anti-Soviet. Like the leadership of today, it will be intensely nationalistic and will support the United States only so long as US interests seem to parallel Indonesian interests. The general implication of this analysis is that one cannot forecast with any certainty that Indonesia will be an ally or friendly state in the year 2000.

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APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE