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Social SciencesEconomics and Cost Analysis

Analysis of the Air Force Equipment Replacement Forecasting Method

Authors: Douglas J. Blazer; LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT INST MCLEAN VA
Abstract:
The Air Force forecasts requirements to replace current in-use Air Force managed support equipment. There are two needs for the replacement forecast: to provide budget estimates for equipment needs 1 7 years into the future, and to execute equipment buy (and repair) actions. The current system does not collect sufficient data to forecast replacements; however, it is not clear if any system could forecast replacement requirements accurately enough to develop a bottom-up (at the national stock number [NSN] level) budget forecast for the program objective memorandum (POM) years, even if the system collected all the relevant data. More likely, the Air Force could develop an aggregate forecast by major air command (MAJCOM) or type of support equipment that would more accurately forecast the replacement dollars needed, but not the individual items that need to be replaced. We believe the Air Force can significantly improve its replacement computation for execution (buy and repair) by using current replacement requisition data to update the computation.

Description: Final rept.
Pages: 28
Report Date: NOV 2005
Contract Number: GS00F0026M
Report Number: A321244

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Keywords relating to this report:
*AIR FORCE BUDGETS
*FORECASTING
AGGREGATES_MATERIALS_
AIR FORCE RESEARCH
BUDGET ESTIMATES
COMPUTATIONS
INVENTORY CONTROL
MILITARY REQUIREMENTS
REPAIR
REPLACEMENT
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