Abstract: This thesis introduces a tri-level defender-attacker-defender optimization model that prescribes how Iraq's oil infrastructure can, over time, be expanded, protected, and operated, even in the face of insurgent attacks. The outer-most defender model is a mixed-integer program that, given a set of anticipated insurgent attacks, specifies a quarterly capital expansion, defense, and operation plan to maximize oil exports over a decade-long planning horizon. The intermediate attacker model, observing the outer defender plans, is a mixed integer program that re-optimizes insurgent attacks to minimize export flow. The inner-most defender model is a linear program that redirects flow in response to insurgent damage. The author uses open-source descriptions of current Iraqi oil infrastructure and reasonable estimates of the costs to expand capacity and/or defend operating assets, and reduce vulnerability to attacks. He solves this tri-level model by converting it into an equivalent bi-level one, and applying decomposition. For a range of scenarios, he determines the best allocation of effort between improving oil export infrastructure, and defending it.
| Limitations: |
 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE |
| Description: |
Master's thesis |
| Pages: |
139 |
| Report Date: |
SEP 2005 |
| Report Number: |
A235934 |
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