Initialization, Prediction and Diagnosis of the Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones using the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator, ACCESS

Authors: Michael J Reeder; Noel E Davidson; Craig H Bishop; Jeffrey D Kepert; Peter Steinle; Kevin J Tory; Yimin Ma; NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY CA

Abstract:

1. Improved initialization and skilful prediction of Tropical Cyclone (TC) track, structure and intensity. 2. Improved prediction of Rapid Intensification (RI). 3. Improved understanding of the mechanisms of TC structure and intensity change, particularly Rapid Intensification. The plan is a 4-part, inter-connected program of: (a) basic research into initialization of realistic TC structures using the state-of-the-art 4-dimensional variational data assimilation system (4D-VAR) from ACCESS (Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator), which is an implementation of the UK Meteorological Office s NWP system, (b) very high-resolution forecast experiments on prediction of TC structure and intensity, with particular focus on Rapid Intensification, using ACCESS, (c) Diagnosis of the mechanisms of TC intensity and structure change (environmental influences, vortex structure, internal processes), and (d) transitioning of a validated TC assimilation and prediction system into operations, to provide forecast guidance on TC track, intensity and structure change over the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins.

Limitations:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE