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Abstract:
The deciphering of intelligence is a complex task and if not explained clearly can cause confusion in battle, ultimately increasing the probability of fratricide and loss. Various methods have been tried to simplify the deciphering of intelligence, many of which are simplistic and deterministic in their nature (e.g. fuzzy logic). In this paper, we employ two probabilistic techniques (Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams), widely accepted in a variety of industries, to aid decision makers by determining the most probable outcome based on the intelligence known at the time. The methodology described in this paper relates to an asymmetric urban warfare scenario and has proven to be robust and insensitive to reasonable changes in the data. The time taken to develop and understand a Bayesian Network or Influence Diagram makes it improbable for satisfactory use within a high tempo real life scenario. These tools are potentially useful during the intelligence preparation phase and as decision support tools for areas such as troop allocation and operational planning.
| Limitations: |
 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE |
| Pages: |
40 |
| Report Date: |
01 DEC 2006 |
| Report Number: |
A081474 |
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