Storming Media: Pentagon Reports and DocumentsPentagon Reports: Fast. Definitive. Complete.     
New Account »
Forgot Password?
Advanced Search »

Behavioral SciencesPsychology

Reducing the Confirmation Bias in an Evolving Situation

Authors: Martin A. Tolcott; F. F. Marvin; DECISION SCIENCE CONSORTIUM INC RESTON VA
 
Abstract: This report presents the results of Phase 2 research on decision making in an evolving situation. As in Phase 1, the problem context was situation assessment by trained Army intelligence analysts working in pairs. Participants were given an initial battlefield scenario and asked to determine the enemy's most likely avenue of approach and to give their level of confidence; subsequently they were asked to reconsider their decisions after receiving each of three updated intelligence reports that contained some items that confirmed and some that did not confirm their early hypothesis. Finally, the participants were asked to rate each information item in terms of the degree to which it supported or contradicted their hypotheses. (AN)

Limitations: APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE
Description: Interim rept. Sep 87-Aug 88
Pages: 41
Report Date: FEB 95
Contract Number: MDA903-86-C-0332
Report Number: A075392
Keywords relating to this report:
*DECISION MAKING
*JUDGEMENT(PSYCHOLOGY)
*JUDGEMENT_PSYCHOLOGY_
ANALYSTS
ARMY INTELLIGENCE
ARMY PERSONNEL
BATTLEFIELDS
BEHAVIOR
BIAS
CHI SQUARE TEST
CONFIDENCE LEVEL
HYPOTHESES
MILITARY PSYCHOLOGY
PROBLEM SOLVING
SCENARIOS
SKILLS
TEAMS_PERSONNEL_
Adobe PDF - $19.95
Printed Format - $22.95
Please check the box for the format you wish to order.
Shipping Terms
About Electronic Delivery

Email This Abstract